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Energy Security, Evolving Imperatives

Sardar Muhammad Usman

Sardar Muhammad Usman, Sir Syed Kazim Ali's student, writes on Current Issues.

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9 October 2025

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Energy security is shifting from fossil fuel access to include climate resilience, decarbonization, and technological leadership. While developed countries pursue systemic transitions through policies like the EU’s Green Deal and the US Inflation Reduction Act, emerging economies such as China and India balance fossil fuel use with renewable energy leadership. Despite fragmented strategies and obstacles like climate finance gaps and mineral competition, global recognition is growing that lasting energy security and climate stability require stronger international cooperation.

Energy Security, Evolving Imperatives

The twin imperatives of the twenty-first century, securing a stable and affordable energy supply while simultaneously combating the escalating climate crisis, have forced a profound and often uncomfortable re-evaluation of national priorities across the globe. For decades, the concept of energy security was straightforward, defined almost exclusively by access to and control over fossil fuel resources. A nation’s strength was measured in barrels of oil, cubic feet of natural gas, and tons of coal. Today, that paradigm is fracturing under the immense pressure of environmental necessity. The new calculus of energy security is far more complex, intertwining the old geopolitics of resource control with the new realities of carbon emissions, climate resilience, and technological competition. As nations chart their course through this transition, their responses reveal a world pulling in different directions, a mosaic of ambitious green initiatives, pragmatic compromises, and starkly divergent capabilities.

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This redefinition of energy security has been accelerated by geopolitical shocks that have laid bare the vulnerabilities of the old model. The conflict in Ukraine, for instance, served as a powerful catalyst, demonstrating with brutal clarity how dependency on a single state for fossil fuels could be weaponized, plunging entire continents into an energy crisis. For Europe, the immediate response involved a difficult, short-term scramble for alternative gas suppliers and even a temporary increase in coal consumption. Yet, the long-term strategic consequence was an intensification of its commitment to decarbonization. The crisis reinforced the understanding that true energy independence in the modern era cannot be achieved by simply diversifying fossil fuel imports, but by reducing the need for them altogether. Security is no longer just about the stability of supply chains, but also about insulating economies from the price volatility of global commodity markets and building resilience against the physical impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather events that threaten energy infrastructure.

In the developed world, this strategic shift is most evident in the comprehensive policy frameworks enacted by major economic blocs. The European Union has positioned itself as a global standard-bearer with its Green Deal and the associated “Fit for 55” legislative package. This ambitious plan aims to overhaul the continent’s economy, with legally binding targets to cut emissions and mandates that will, for example, phase out fossil fuel boilers in all buildings by 2040. It represents a systemic approach, using carbon pricing, industrial strategy, and regulatory power to steer private and public investment towards a low-carbon future. Across the Atlantic, the United States has pursued a different, yet equally transformative, path with its Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Rather than relying heavily on carbon pricing, the IRA deploys hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies and tax credits to stimulate domestic manufacturing of clean technologies, from electric vehicles to solar panels. The extension of measures like the 30 percent Investment Tax Credit for renewable projects is designed to trigger a massive wave of private sector investment. While framed as climate policy, the IRA is also an unabashed instrument of industrial policy, aimed at reshoring supply chains and competing directly with China’s dominance in green technology. These approaches, while different in their mechanics, signal a consensus among Western powers that the future of economic competitiveness and national security is inextricably linked to leadership in the clean energy transition.

The picture in the developing world is substantially more complicated, defined by the dual challenge of meeting the aspirations of growing populations while contributing to global climate goals. The responses are often paradoxical, reflecting a difficult balancing act between immediate development needs and long-term sustainability. China, for instance, occupies a unique position as both the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases and its most significant investor in renewable energy. Its rapid economic expansion continues to be powered by a vast fleet of coal-fired power plants. At the same time, it has strategically sought and achieved global dominance in the manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries. This seeming contradiction is a calculated strategy: using fossil fuels to secure its baseload energy for industrial growth in the present, while positioning itself as the indispensable supplier of the technologies that will power the rest of the world’s transition. In May 2024, clean energy sources generated a record-high 44 percent of China’s electricity, pushing coal’s share down to a record low of 53 percent, illustrating the scale and speed of its internal shift.

India faces a similar dilemma. With a population that has surpassed China’s and a rapidly industrializing economy, its energy demand is set to soar. The government has set one of the world’s most ambitious renewable energy targets, aiming to install 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based electricity capacity by 2030. This has spurred a massive expansion of solar and wind power. However, to ensure a stable and affordable electricity supply for its millions, the country is also expanding its domestic coal production. For India and many other nations in the Global South, the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” is not an abstract concept but a daily reality. They argue that they cannot be expected to forgo the development path that industrialized nations enjoyed for over a century, particularly without substantial financial and technological support. For many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, the challenge is even more fundamental. The immediate priority is often energy access itself, providing electricity to hundreds of millions of people for the first time. In this context, natural gas is frequently viewed as a necessary transition fuel, a cleaner alternative to biomass or coal that can provide reliable power for economic development. The risk is that without adequate international support, these nations could become locked into new fossil fuel infrastructure for decades to come.

Beneath these national and regional strategies lie a series of critical global challenges that will ultimately determine the success or failure of this collective energy transition. A significant degree of technological optimism underpins many national plans, with heavy reliance on future innovations like green hydrogen, advanced batteries, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). While these technologies hold immense promise, their current cost, scalability, and technological maturity remain significant hurdles. A more immediate and pressing issue is the persistent gap in climate finance. The UN Environment Programme’s 2023 Adaptation Gap Report starkly noted that the adaptation finance needs of developing countries are 10 to 18 times as large as the public finance flow they currently receive. This chasm between promises made and capital delivered remains one of the greatest obstacles to a globally equitable transition, leaving poorer nations without the resources to build resilient infrastructure or invest in clean energy alternatives.

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Furthermore, the shift to a green economy is creating new arenas for geopolitical competition. The focus of resource rivalry is moving from oil fields to the mines that produce critical minerals. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), mineral demand for clean energy technologies is projected to nearly triple by 2030. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements are the essential inputs for batteries, magnets, and advanced electronics. The geographical concentration of these resources and, more importantly, their processing supply chains, creates new dependencies. China’s current dominance over the refining of many of these minerals is a source of considerable strategic anxiety in Washington and Brussels, fueling a global race to secure and diversify these new supply chains. Finally, the principle of a “Just Transition” presents a profound domestic challenge for all nations. The decline of fossil fuel industries will inevitably displace workers and communities whose livelihoods have been built around coal mines, oil rigs, and power plants. Ensuring that these communities are not left behind, through retraining programs, investment in new industries, and social safety nets, is not only a moral imperative but also a political necessity to maintain public support for ambitious climate policies.

In conclusion, the global response to the intertwined challenges of energy security and climate change is not a monolithic movement but a fragmented and complex tapestry of national interests, economic constraints, and strategic calculations. The very definition of security has been irrevocably altered, expanding from a narrow focus on fuel supply to a broader concept encompassing economic resilience, technological leadership, and environmental stability. While developed nations are leveraging their financial and technological capacity to pioneer systemic green transitions, developing countries are navigating a more treacherous path, forced to balance urgent development needs with global climate responsibilities. The journey is fraught with challenges, from the immense gap in climate finance and the technological hurdles of new energy systems to the emerging geopolitics of critical minerals. The world is not yet moving in unison. However, a unifying truth is slowly taking hold in capitals around the world: long-term, durable energy security is impossible to achieve in a world destabilized by climate change. The two goals are not in opposition but are two sides of the same coin. Achieving them both will require a level of international cooperation, financial commitment, and shared understanding that remains elusive but is more necessary than ever.

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9 October 2025

Written By

Sardar Muhammad Usman

MPhil in Mathematics

Student | Author

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Sir Syed Kazim Ali

English Teacher

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