Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan has historically been marred by mutual distrust, divergent narratives, and unresolved grievances. Although shared history binds them, Afghanistan’s distorted interpretation of past events, along with revanchist and nationalist tendencies, continues to fuel tensions. For example, the United Nations reports that Afghanistan has made unfounded border claims, including over Pakistan’s Chagai district, which Pakistan dismisses as legally invalid. These claims are often driven more by tribal sentiments and nationalist pride than by pragmatic diplomacy, creating persistent friction. Compared to neighbors like Iran, China, and Central Asian states, Pakistan has adopted a more tolerant stance, allowing greater flexibility in border issues. However, this leniency has, at times, been exploited, complicating regional stability and security.
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Furthermore, Pakistan’s historically lenient border policies have been strategic yet problematic. Colonial-era agreements, such as “Easement Rights,” granted tribes across the border unregulated trade and movement. The British colonial administration’s arrangements, inherited by Pakistan, created a loosely governed border environment that Afghan entities have exploited. The Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) scheme, intended to facilitate Afghanistan’s access to global markets through Pakistan, has been widely abused. Reports indicate that up to 30% of border activity involves illicit trade, creating a thriving illegal economy. Criminal networks, colluding with influential political and bureaucratic patrons, have capitalized on these arrangements, fueling smuggling, and patronage. This ecosystem has not only enriched smugglers but also entrenched corruption, undermining border sovereignty.
Moreover, this ongoing illicit trade has led to a complex web of economic and security issues. Smuggling networks, supported by both Afghan and Pakistani actors, have deeply impacted border regions such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. For instance, Karachi’s markets are estimated to have up to 40% of goods imported illegally, undermining formal trade channels and perpetuating criminal patronage. Moreover, illicit trade channels sustain militant networks, which threaten national security. According to Pakistan’s Bureau of Statistics, unrecorded trade costs the economy approximately $4 billion annually. These figures underscore the urgent need for effective border management, including surveillance, legal reforms, and law enforcement to curb illegal activities and stabilize regional security.
Building on this, Afghanistan’s history of foreign interventions has significantly shaped its current policies and attitude. The Soviet invasion in 1979, which cost around 1.5 million lives, left Afghanistan fractured, with warlords and militias vying for power. The subsequent civil war and rise of the Taliban rule further entrenched tribal rivalries and victimhood narratives. The U.S.-led intervention after 2001, aimed at dismantling terrorist networks, created a cycle of instability, with UNAMA reporting around 10,000 civilian casualties annually over the past five years. Afghanistan’s ideological support for non-state actors such as Al-Qaeda, ISIS, ETIM, and TTP has reinforced a dangerous sense of invincibility among Afghan leaders. This hubris, rooted in tribal ethos, blinds Afghanistan to historical lessons, namely that foreign invasions and internal fragmentation make the country vulnerable to external domination. Their refusal to accept regional norms and regional cooperation continues to threaten Pakistan’s stability and security.
Furthermore, this overconfidence has had serious repercussions. Afghanistan’s support for groups like TTP and its tolerance of terrorist sanctuaries have directly impacted Pakistan’s internal security. For example, over 70% of terrorist incidents in Pakistan since 2018 involve groups operating from Afghan soil, with TTP attacks alone resulting in over 1,500 deaths. Such policies, driven by ideological and tribal considerations, undermine regional counter-terrorism efforts. Moreover, Afghanistan’s support for militants has alienated neighboring countries, prompting regional realignments. Russia and China, for instance, have recognized the Taliban government to counterbalance U.S. influence, yet remain wary of Afghanistan’s potential as a terror breeding ground. India’s alleged support for anti-Pakistan groups within Afghanistan has further complicated regional dynamics. These external influences, combined with Afghan hubris, threaten to prolong conflict, requiring Pakistan and regional allies to adopt a multifaceted response.
In addition, external powers have played a significant role in shaping the Afghan landscape, often with limited success. China’s cautious engagement under the Belt and Road Initiative has yet to influence Taliban-led Afghanistan significantly, constrained by regional security concerns. According to CFR, China’s influence remains limited due to its focus on East Asia and Pacific priorities. Russia’s recognition of the Taliban in 2022 was largely strategic, aimed at countering U.S. dominance, but it has yet to translate into meaningful influence. Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar have attempted mediation, but their leverage remains limited due to regional and ideological differences. As a result, external powers’ limited engagement leaves Pakistan to manage most regional security threats alone, increasing internal vulnerabilities. This underscores the importance of Pakistan developing resilient internal strategies that can withstand external pressures.
Given these complexities, Pakistan must prioritize internal reforms and robust border security measures. Ending the open border culture of laissez-faire trade involves strengthening border management, including deploying surveillance technology and infrastructure upgrades. For example, the Pakistan Border Management Authority (PBMA) aims to modernize border control, but requires consistent implementation and adequate resources. Official estimates suggest illegal border trade accounts for nearly $4 billion annually, fueling criminal networks. Consequently, strict border controls, coupled with intelligence-led operations, are necessary to reduce illegal crossings and smuggling. Furthermore, Pakistan must disrupt the criminal patronage systems that benefit political lobbies and criminal syndicates. The full implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) and legal reforms to increase terrorism conviction rates, currently below 50%, are critical steps. Additionally, the government must systematically reform educational institutions to eradicate extremist narratives, as a 2021 survey indicates that 35% of madrassas still promote radical ideologies. Civil society, religious groups, and media must be engaged to build societal resilience against extremism, emphasizing moderate narratives and political inclusivity.
To enhance its internal security, Pakistan should bolster military and intelligence capabilities while fostering regional cooperation. Expanding joint border patrols with Iran and Central Asian states can significantly reduce infiltration and cross-border attacks. According to the International Crisis Group, coordinated border management has reduced attacks by up to 25% in some regions. Additionally, Pakistan should strengthen engagement with regional organizations like SCO and SAARC to facilitate intelligence sharing and joint counter-terrorism operations. Diplomatic efforts aimed at stabilizing Afghanistan through inclusive political processes are equally vital. Initiatives like the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) need revitalization and broader regional backing. Moreover, economic initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) can contribute to stability by generating employment and economic growth, thereby reducing extremism’s appeal. Collectively, military readiness, regional cooperation, and socio-economic development form the backbone of Pakistan’s strategy to counter Afghan-related threats.
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Finally, sustainable stability requires a whole-of-society approach involving civil society, religious institutions, media, and education. Community engagement programs can help rehabilitate conflict-affected areas and combat radicalization. For instance, UNDP reports that community-led interventions have deradicalized hundreds of youths in conflict zones. Educational reform to exclude extremist content and promote moderate religious teachings remains essential. The National Action Plan emphasizes madrassa regulation, but implementation remains inconsistent. Therefore, coordinated efforts across sectors are necessary to build societal resilience to external and internal radical influences. Promoting political inclusivity and human rights, including women’s participation and minority rights, can foster social cohesion. These integrated strategies will help Pakistan create a resilient societal fabric capable of resisting external pressures and internal divisions, ultimately ensuring long-term stability.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s approach to Afghan challenges must be comprehensive, balancing internal reforms with regional diplomacy. While external influences continue to shape Afghanistan’s trajectory, Pakistan’s resilience depends on strengthening border security, disrupting illicit networks, and fostering societal cohesion. Recognizing Afghanistan’s internal vulnerabilities and external manipulations, Pakistan must adopt a proactive stance, combining strategic security measures with sustained political and societal efforts, to secure its borders and promote regional stability. Only through persistent internal reforms, coupled with regional cooperation, can Pakistan effectively counter the multifaceted threats emanating from Afghanistan, ensuring a safer and more stable future for South Asia.
