The intricate and fluctuating dynamics of Pakistan-US relations have long been the subject of both analysis and conjecture. The relationship, which has endured numerous highs and lows, has witnessed its most significant transformations since the tragic events of September 11, 2001. Following 9/11, Pakistan became a frontline ally in the US-led “War on Terror,” marking a new chapter in bilateral cooperation. Yet, this alliance has also exposed deep-rooted tensions, competing priorities, and ongoing diplomatic complexities that continue to shape their engagement.
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The events of 9/11 fundamentally altered the course of US-Pakistan relations. Prior to this, their engagement was marked by inconsistency, with periods of alliance during the Cold War offset by sanctions and political discord. The US imposed sanctions under the Pressler Amendment in 1990 after confirming Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, damaging trust on both sides. However, Cold War exigencies and Pakistan's strategic location meant cooperation was often renewed when geopolitical interests aligned.
Fast-forward to the post-9/11 era, Pakistan was quickly drawn into America’s war strategy in Afghanistan. President Musharraf’s government agreed to full cooperation, allowing the US military access to air bases and intelligence operations. In return, Pakistan received over $1 billion annually in military and economic aid between 2002 and 2009. This aid, however, was tied closely to counterterrorism benchmarks and contributed to an increasingly transactional dynamic.
Yet, the partnership began to show signs of strain. Between 2005 and 2007, revelations emerged that elements within Pakistan had sold nuclear secrets to countries like Libya, raising alarms in Washington. The A.Q. Khan network’s global proliferation scandal seriously undermined Pakistan’s credibility with the US. Moreover, US officials began suspecting that Pakistan’s intelligence agencies maintained ties with militant groups, especially the Haqqani network operating in Afghanistan.
By 2008, tensions had escalated further with the introduction of the Kerry-Lugar Bill. While it promised substantial civilian aid, it was perceived by the Pakistani military as intrusive. The Pakistani Army publicly criticized the bill for undermining national sovereignty, despite civilian government approval. Meanwhile, the US expressed dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s perceived inaction against militants involved in cross-border attacks into Afghanistan.
The relationship hit rock bottom in 2011 with the US Navy SEALs' operation that killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. The fact that the raid was conducted without Pakistan’s knowledge severely damaged mutual trust. This covert mission prompted widespread outrage in Pakistan over sovereignty violations and intelligence failures. Tensions worsened when a NATO strike mistakenly killed 24 Pakistani soldiers later that year, leading Pakistan to shut down NATO supply routes temporarily.
From 2014 to 2015, however, both nations sought to revive cooperation, especially on Afghan peace negotiations. The Obama administration saw Pakistan as essential in facilitating dialogue with the Taliban. Pakistan hosted the Murree peace talks between the Afghan Taliban and Afghan government officials in July 2015, signaling a diplomatic opening. Yet, these efforts stalled following revelations of Taliban leader Mullah Omar’s death, leading to renewed uncertainty.
In 2016, the Trump administration adopted a more confrontational tone. Accusing Pakistan of harboring terror groups, President Trump suspended military aid and intensified pressure. In a 2018 tweet, Trump accused Pakistan of giving “safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help in return.” This marked a low point in relations, with Pakistan pivoting more aggressively toward China for strategic and economic support.
Despite growing tensions, 2019 brought a rare diplomatic thaw when Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Washington. During his meeting with President Trump, both leaders emphasized the importance of economic cooperation and regional peace. Trump’s unexpected offer to mediate on the Kashmir issue was welcomed by Pakistan but swiftly rejected by India. While largely symbolic, the meeting reflected an interest on both sides to avoid complete disengagement.
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From 2020 onward, however, the US-Pakistan relationship has been marked by disengagement and ambiguity. The US exit from Afghanistan in 2021 and its shift toward countering China have reduced the strategic urgency of Pakistan in Washington’s eyes. President Biden’s comment in 2022 labeling Pakistan “one of the most dangerous countries” due to its nuclear arsenal sparked diplomatic backlash. Meanwhile, Pakistan has deepened its ties with China, complicating its relationship with the US further.
The years since 2001 illustrate how US-Pakistan relations have swung between tactical cooperation and strategic divergence. While bound by moments of shared interest, their differing priorities and trust deficits have kept the partnership unstable. As China rises and South Asia's dynamics evolve, Pakistan and the US must reframe their engagement or risk growing irrelevance to each other. The future of their bilateral relationship will depend on whether they can transition from a crisis-driven alliance to a stable, long-term strategic partnership.
