The relationship between Pakistan and the United States has always been complicated, often shifting between cooperation and discord, shaped by strategic interests, geopolitics, and mutual exigencies. Since 1947, the U.S. has provided Pakistan with over $33 billion in aid, reflecting the depth and shifts in their alliance. However, after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, the strategic context shifted drastically. Both countries are now reassessing their foreign policies amid growing tensions, though cooperation on Afghanistan remains a critical area for possible engagement.
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To gauge the potential for renewed ties, one must examine the evolving bilateral landscape, particularly in Afghanistan’s context. Pakistan hosted nearly 3.7 million Afghan refugees after the Soviet invasion, showing its historical role in Afghan affairs. As the Taliban tightens its grip over Afghanistan, Islamabad faces both diplomatic challenges and domestic security concerns. Meanwhile, Washington is recalibrating its regional presence amid new global priorities, especially in Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe.
Currently, the relationship is defined by a marked cooling of strategic ties. In 2018, the U.S. suspended $1.3 billion in military aid to Pakistan, citing its alleged inaction against terror groups. Washington’s frustration with Pakistan’s Taliban policy and Islamabad’s resentment over being sidelined have both led to mutual distrust. Public and diplomatic statements reflect this estrangement, despite underlying trade and diaspora connections.
Economically, the U.S. remains one of Pakistan’s top export destinations, but strategic coordination is minimal. In 2022, bilateral trade stood at over $9 billion, with the U.S. being Pakistan's largest export partner. Yet, overtures from Pakistan to rekindle comprehensive ties have largely gone unanswered. America’s foreign policy pivot to the Indo-Pacific and its strategic partnership with India have also diluted the urgency to re-engage Islamabad.
Still, Afghanistan offers a shared concern that could revive cooperation. More than 29 million people in Afghanistan face food insecurity, which threatens regional stability. The humanitarian crisis, terrorism, and narcotics trafficking all demand bilateral collaboration. Both nations have stakes in ensuring that Afghanistan does not become a hub for transnational threats.
The historical ups and downs are vital to understand current dynamics. During the 1980s, the U.S. funneled approximately $3 billion into Pakistan for the Afghan jihad against the Soviet Union. The War on Terror further strengthened security ties. Yet, moments like the 2011 U.S. raid in Abbottabad exposed the deep strategic rifts, undermining long-term trust.
Following the chaotic U.S. exit from Kabul, the regional security vacuum has become Pakistan’s burden. The Taliban’s return has emboldened Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which increased attacks by 65% in 2023. Islamabad views this as a direct consequence of an uncoordinated withdrawal. The fallout reinforces the need for both countries to revisit joint security strategies.
Pakistan can play a central role in facilitating humanitarian aid in Afghanistan. The UN’s 2024 appeal for $3.06 billion in Afghan aid includes reliance on Pakistan for logistical routes. Islamabad’s proximity and ties to Afghan factions position it uniquely. This logistical leverage can be a platform to reignite structured dialogue with the U.S. on broader regional issues.
The U.S. can assist Pakistan’s fragile economy, which has worsened post-Afghanistan. Pakistan’s economic growth dropped to 0.29% in FY 2023, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey. Technical assistance, inclusion in trade schemes like the GSP, and structured financial engagement could restore confidence and mutual interest.
In the longer run, shared goals such as regional economic integration offer promise. A 2021 World Bank report showed that Pakistan could increase trade with Afghanistan by 50% through improved border infrastructure. Such collaboration not only aids Afghanistan but also boosts Pakistan’s economy and reinforces U.S. development diplomacy.
On counterterrorism, there's room for trust-building. The U.S. State Department designated the TTP as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2010, recognizing its threat to both nations. Pakistan’s intelligence capabilities and America’s technological edge can be jointly utilized to counter threats that transcend borders.
Pakistan must also tackle perceptions of supporting extremism. According to FATF, Pakistan exited the "grey list" in 2022 after demonstrating progress in monitoring terror financing. This development is a foundation to rebuild credibility and assure international partners of its evolving domestic policies.
Education and science are underrated domains in diplomacy. Over 7,000 Pakistani students were enrolled in U.S. universities in 2022, according to IIE. Expanding scholarships, collaborative research, and academic exchange can improve public diplomacy and deepen civil ties between both countries.
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Ultimately, rebuilding the relationship requires pragmatism and patience. A Pew Research Center survey (2022) found that 65% of Pakistanis viewed the U.S. unfavorably, reflecting years of mistrust. This underlines the importance of rebuilding not just policy-level engagement, but also public confidence.
There is still room for renewal. If the U.S. and Pakistan focus on shared goals — stability in Afghanistan, economic recovery, and regional security — a balanced, cooperative future is possible. Both countries have overlapping interests that demand strategic engagement beyond episodic alliances.
