The Indo-Pakistani rivalry remains one of the most enduring and dangerous in modern geopolitics, having led to multiple wars, border skirmishes, and near-nuclear standoffs. Within this tense dyad, China occupies a crucial third position. Though it often remains silent or neutral during direct Indo-Pak military conflicts, China’s stakes are substantial and deeply strategic. As a long-standing ally of Pakistan and a historical adversary of India, China has much to gain, but also much to lose, from each confrontation between its two South Asian neighbors. This article aims to unpack China’s role by analyzing the tangible benefits and critical risks it faces in the backdrop of Indo-Pak wars. It assesses China's strategic calculations, economic interests, geopolitical alignments, and its positioning within a transforming global order.
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The China-India-Pakistan Triangle
To understand China’s role, one must appreciate the evolution of the Pak-China friendship and its fraught relationship with India. Since the 1962 Sino-Indian War, China and India have maintained a relationship marred by border disputes and mutual distrust. In contrast, China and Pakistan have developed a deep strategic partnership, famously described as “higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans.” Their ties solidified after the 1963 Sino-Pak boundary agreement over Kashmir’s northern areas, and further strengthened during Indo-Pak wars (1965, 1971, and Kargil in 1999).
In each of these conflicts, China provided varying degrees of diplomatic, moral, and military support to Pakistan while refraining from direct military involvement. The 1965 and 1971 wars were particularly significant: China issued veiled threats to India but avoided open confrontation. During the Kargil War, it called for restraint on both sides, though it reportedly disapproved of Pakistan's adventurism. More recently, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, has added a deep economic dimension to the alliance, particularly in areas of contested Kashmir. These historical touchpoints illustrate that China’s silence during Indo-Pak wars is not indifference but a carefully calculated geopolitical strategy.
Strategic Benefits for China
• Regional Balancing and Containment of India
China benefits significantly from Indo-Pak tensions by leveraging its support for Pakistan as a means to constrain India’s regional rise. When India is embroiled in conflict with Pakistan, it is forced to divert military resources, political focus, and diplomatic capital away from its eastern front with China. This strategic distraction aligns perfectly with China’s desire to contain India’s regional and global ambitions, especially in the Indian Ocean and South Asia (Garver, 2001).
• Deepening the China-Pakistan Alliance
Wars and conflicts provide an opportunity for China to reinforce its role as Pakistan’s all-weather ally, gaining not only trust but also influence over Pakistan’s defense planning and foreign policy. Arms transfers, military training, and economic investments often increase in post-conflict scenarios, expanding China's foothold in Pakistan's strategic decision-making circles. For example, after the Kargil War, Pakistan leaned more heavily on Chinese military hardware and nuclear technology.
• Economic Leverage through CPEC
Every Indo-Pak confrontation reinforces Pakistan’s economic dependency on China. The insecurity brought by conflict weakens investor confidence from other sources, thereby pushing Islamabad closer to Beijing. China has capitalized on this to cement major infrastructure projects, particularly through CPEC, a multi-billion-dollar initiative linking Gwadar port to China’s western Xinjiang province. CPEC’s progress makes China a stakeholder in Pakistan’s internal and border security, giving it leverage over both military and economic policies.
• Global Image as a Peaceful Power
Interestingly, China’s consistent silence allows it to project an image of neutrality and responsibility on the global stage. While benefiting from conflict in strategic terms, China avoids being viewed as an aggressor or war-monger. Its calls for “dialogue and restraint” position it as a responsible global player, contrasting with the often more vocal Western powers. This image supports its soft power ambitions in the Global South.
Potential Losses and Strategic Risks
Despite these benefits, China also faces substantial risks and losses from Indo-Pak wars, particularly in light of shifting regional and global dynamics.
• Risk to CPEC and Chinese Investments
The most direct threat comes to Chinese investments in Pakistan, especially those linked to CPEC. Conflicts in Kashmir or areas near Balochistan can disrupt infrastructure, supply chains, and investor confidence. A wider war could damage roads, railways, and pipelines that China relies on to access energy and trade routes. China's economic stakes mean that it cannot afford to see Pakistan destabilized, especially as unrest or regime change could threaten repayment and security guarantees.
• Strained Ties with India
Each Indo-Pak war complicates China’s already fragile relationship with India, especially if Beijing is seen as favoring Islamabad. India’s strategic posture has gradually shifted toward the West, evident in its growing cooperation with the QUAD (United States, Japan, Australia, and India). Sino-Indian tensions, exacerbated by the Galwan Valley clash in 2020, are made worse by China’s indirect support of Pakistan during conflicts. This geopolitical polarization harms China's long-term goal of maintaining a stable neighborhood.
• Escalation Risks in a Nuclear Environment
China must also factor in the danger of escalation between two nuclear-armed neighbors. A full-scale war could provoke global attention, leading to international military deployments or sanctions regimes that complicate China’s own strategic operations. If conflict spills into a regional war or leads to a nuclear exchange, the fallout would affect trade routes, energy corridors, and diplomatic alignments, undermining China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) across Asia.
• Global Diplomatic Backlash
If China is perceived to be tacitly supporting Pakistan during wars, through arms, intelligence, or diplomatic shielding, it risks a global backlash, especially from the West. The U.S. and EU may apply pressure through sanctions or diplomatic isolation, hindering China’s long-term economic growth and technological development. Furthermore, this perception may fuel global narratives about China being an irresponsible or revisionist power, contrary to its stated peaceful rise.
Critically analyzing, China’s behavior during Indo-Pak conflicts reflects a deliberate policy of strategic ambiguity, allowing it to benefit from regional tension without direct military involvement. Scholars differ on whether this ambiguity is sustainable. Some argue that it gives China maximum flexibility, allowing it to reap geopolitical dividends while avoiding military overstretch. However, others argue that this ambivalence masks deeper contradictions in China’s regional policy.
For instance, China’s official neutrality is often contradicted by its military aid to Pakistan, vetoes against anti-Pakistan resolutions at the UN, and its increasing presence in Gilgit-Baltistan, an area India claims as its own. These actions reduce China's credibility as a neutral actor. Moreover, India’s response to this perceived partiality has been a greater alignment with Western powers, fueling the very encirclement China hoped to avoid. Thus, China’s silence, though tactically advantageous, may be strategically self-defeating in the long term.
Another contradiction lies in China's dual identity as a peace-promoter and arms supplier. While urging India and Pakistan to resolve issues peacefully, China continues to sell advanced weaponry and nuclear technology to Pakistan. This undercuts its own narrative and contributes to arms racing and instability in South Asia.
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In this context, China's silence is not merely inaction, it is a form of active, calculated restraint, aimed at maximizing leverage without inviting open conflict. However, as regional polarization deepens, particularly with U.S.-China tensions growing, China may find it harder to maintain this balancing act.
In short, China’s silence during Indo-Pak wars is far from apolitical. It is a well-calibrated strategy aimed at maintaining influence, preserving economic interests, and managing two critical relationships in South Asia. The benefits, strategic containment of India, expansion of CPEC, and a stronger Pakistan alliance, are considerable. However, they come at the cost of regional instability, strained India-China relations, economic exposure, and diplomatic contradictions. As South Asia becomes more entangled in great-power competition, China’s room for ambiguous silence may shrink. Future Indo-Pak conflicts could force Beijing to adopt a more explicit stance, potentially altering the balance of power in the region. Whether China will continue to navigate this tightrope successfully depends on its ability to balance strategic ambition with regional responsibility.
