The question of whether new provinces should be created in Pakistan is a complex one, deeply rooted in administrative efficiency, resource distribution, and the delicate balance of political power among different groups. Major political parties have frequently committed to the creation of new provinces, particularly in regions like South Punjab, signaling a recognition of the growing need for decentralization. The debate draws on historical context, contemporary governance challenges, and the potential benefits and drawbacks of such a significant administrative restructuring.
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Pakistan, with a land area of approximately 796,095 square kilometers, currently consists of four provinces: Punjab (205,344 sq km), Sindh (140,914 sq km), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (101,741 sq km, including merged FATA areas), and Balochistan (347,190 sq km). To put this in perspective, Turkey, with a slightly smaller geographical area of 783,562 sq km, has 81 provinces. India, Pakistan's eastern neighbor, operates with 28 states and 8 Union Territories. Historically, after the 1947 partition, India embarked on a process of administrative reorganization, even dividing its Western Punjab into Haryana and Himachal Pradesh in 1966. In contrast, Pakistan's administrative divisions have remained largely static. This disparity is often cited in the debate, especially when considering governance outcomes. For instance, in the Global Prosperity Index 2023, Pakistan ranked 136th out of 167 countries, while in the Global Innovation Index (which includes governance indicators), Pakistan ranked 91st out of 133 economies in 2024. These rankings suggest potential governance and development challenges that could be linked to oversized administrative units.
The core arguments for creating new provinces are based on several factors:
Firstly, balancing the federation is a key concern. Punjab, with an estimated population of over 127 million (based on the 2023 census) and 141 general seats in the National Assembly (out of 266 directly elected seats), holds significant political sway. This demographic and political weight often leads to grievances from smaller provinces regarding equitable power distribution and resource allocation. Creating more provinces, particularly by dividing Punjab, could help rebalance the federal structure, allowing for more diverse regional representation in the federal legislature and potentially reducing inter-provincial tensions.
Secondly, decentralization and good governance are seen as significant benefits. Large provinces mean that administrative centers are often far removed from many parts of the population. For example, residents in parts of South Punjab are hundreds of kilometers from the provincial capital, Lahore (Multan is approximately 350 km from Lahore). Similarly, areas like Kashmore in northern Sindh are about 600 km from Karachi. This distance can make it difficult for ordinary citizens to access government services, seek redressal for grievances, and participate effectively in the democratic process. Creating smaller, more manageable administrative units would bring government closer to the people, potentially improving service delivery, law and order, and local accountability.
Thirdly, the localization of funds and optimal resource allocation is a compelling argument. With fewer, larger provinces, resources tend to be concentrated in and around the provincial capitals, often neglecting remote and underdeveloped regions. Areas like South Punjab, interior Sindh, and parts of Balochistan, despite possessing significant agricultural or mineral resources, have historically lagged in development indicators. The creation of new provinces would allow for more specific allocation of development funds based on local needs and priorities. This could foster more equitable development across the country and empower local decision-making regarding public expenditure.
Fourthly, the establishment of more capital centers could stimulate economic growth. New provincial capitals would become urban hubs, attracting investment, creating jobs, and improving infrastructure in their respective regions. This could help de-stress existing mega-cities like Karachi, which are already grappling with overwhelming population growth and strain on resources. By 2070, a major portion of Pakistan's population is estimated to be urban-centered, underscoring the need for more well-developed urban centers beyond the current provincial capitals.
Various proposals for new provinces have been discussed. For Punjab, suggestions include carving out a South Punjab province (including Multan, Bahawalpur, and Dera Ghazi Khan divisions), a Potohar province (Rawalpindi and surrounding areas), and potentially other smaller units like a separate Faisalabad or Sargodha province. The Bahawalpur division, historically a princely state, covers approximately 46,000 sq km and has a population of around 12.5 million, making a strong case for its restoration as a separate province. In Sindh, the creation of a Karachi province is frequently debated, given Karachi's massive population, estimated to be over 20 million, and its unique urban challenges. Further divisions of rural Sindh, perhaps into two or three additional provinces (e.g., merging Sukkur, Larkana, and Shaheed Benazirabad divisions, and another combining Hyderabad, Banbhore, and Mirpurkhas divisions), are also proposed. Balochistan, with its vast area of 347,190 sq km, could potentially be divided into two provinces to improve administrative control over its diverse regions. Similarly, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could see the formation of a Hazara province (Hazara and Malakand divisions) and other administrative units.
However, the creation of new provinces faces significant challenges. The foremost is the constitutional hurdle. Amending the Constitution of Pakistan, specifically Article 239, requires a two-thirds majority in both the National Assembly and the Senate. This level of consensus has been elusive for political parties in recent elections. Moreover, the consent of the respective provincial assemblies is also crucial, and provincial political parties often have vested interests that complicate agreement on new provincial boundaries.
Another major challenge is the distribution of resources. The National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, which determines the vertical (federal-provincial) and horizontal (among provinces) distribution of shared revenue, is a highly contentious issue. The 7th NFC Award, implemented from July 1, 2010, changed the horizontal distribution criteria from solely population-based to a multi-criteria formula: 82% on population, 10.3% on poverty and backwardness, 5% on revenue collection/generation, and 2.7% on inverse population density. While this sought to address grievances, provinces like Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have historically felt that Punjab receives a disproportionately larger share of resources. The creation of new provinces would necessitate a renegotiation of the NFC Award, a process that has historically been difficult to achieve consensus on.
Economic challenges also exist. While proponents argue for more effective budget allocation, the initial cost of establishing new provincial capitals, administrative infrastructure, secretariats, and judicial systems would be substantial, potentially increasing non-development expenditures. Furthermore, disputes over the ownership and taxation of natural resources (e.g., cotton in South Punjab, hydroelectric power in KP, gas in Sindh and Balochistan) could arise, adding to fiscal complexities.
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Finally, the potential for ethnic and linguistic divisions is a significant concern. Critics argue that creating new provinces based on linguistic or ethnic lines could inadvertently fuel sub-nationalist sentiments and further fragment Pakistani society, which is already diverse. While proponents counter that it is a means of accommodating diversity and addressing long-standing feelings of marginalization, the political environment would need to be carefully managed to prevent such divisions from escalating.
In conclusion, while the creation of new provinces in Pakistan appears to offer substantial benefits in terms of governance, development, and equitable resource distribution, the practical implementation is fraught with considerable political, constitutional, and economic challenges. The recurring commitment by major political parties reflects an understanding of the need for reform. However, for these proposals to move beyond political rhetoric, a genuine and inclusive national dialogue is required, leading to a consensus that addresses the concerns of all stakeholders. A pragmatic approach, perhaps overseen by a broad-based national commission, would be essential to navigate the complex legal implications, overcome ethnic and political conflicts, and ensure that any administrative reorganization genuinely contributes to a more prosperous and well-governed Pakistan. The greater the number of administrative units, provided they are effectively governed and resourced, the easier it can become to manage a diverse population and implement targeted economic policies.
