Pakistan’s foreign policy remains at a critical juncture as regional dynamics shift rapidly amid evolving global alliances, security threats, and economic challenges. While China continues to be Pakistan’s closest strategic partner, growing concerns around economic dependence, security of Chinese investments, and diplomatic imbalances have strained parts of this relationship. Similarly, the post-Taliban scenario in Afghanistan presents both opportunities and challenges for Islamabad, especially in counterterrorism cooperation and border management. Additionally, relations with India and Iran, though often overshadowed, play a vital role in defining Pakistan’s regional outlook.
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The Centrality of Regional Relations in Pakistan’s Foreign Policy
Since its inception, Pakistan has relied on close ties with neighboring countries to navigate regional power dynamics and balance global interests. Bordering four pivotal states, China, Afghanistan, Iran, and India, Pakistan’s geography makes it both a strategic corridor and a geopolitical hotspot. Over the decades, China has evolved from a distant partner into an indispensable ally, while Afghanistan’s volatility has rendered it a constant security concern. With India, historical hostilities and territorial disputes dominate discourse, while with Iran, religious affinities often clash with strategic divergences. As new regional alignments emerge, particularly after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and rising China-U.S. competition, Pakistan’s neighborhood diplomacy now demands delicate balancing and active reconfiguration.
China-Pakistan Relations: Strategic but Economically Imbalanced
China remains Pakistan’s most steadfast ally, anchored in military cooperation, diplomatic backing, and the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, this relationship, once celebrated as “Higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the oceans”, faces nuanced challenges. On the positive side, China has supported Pakistan internationally, particularly at forums like the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Defense collaboration, including joint military exercises and technology transfers, continues to deepen.
Yet, economic asymmetry has become more evident. Pakistan’s mounting debt to Chinese financial institutions, reportedly over $30 billion, has raised concerns about sovereignty and repayment sustainability. Moreover, recurring attacks on Chinese nationals working in Pakistan, most notably the 2022 Karachi University suicide bombing, have raised fears in Beijing over the security of its investments. Chinese pressure for tighter security and expedited reforms often strains Pakistan’s administrative capacity. Thus, while the partnership remains strategically indispensable, it is undergoing an evolution, demanding better risk management, equitable terms, and diversification of economic cooperation beyond infrastructure and debt-financed projects.
Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations: From Strategic Depth to Border Tensions
Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan has evolved significantly since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021. Initially perceived as a strategic victory, Pakistan aimed to leverage its ties with the Taliban to secure regional influence. However, persistent issues such as the non-recognition of the Durand Line, border clashes at Torkham and Chaman, and limited cooperation in counterterrorism have complicated relations (United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, 2023). Pakistan’s continued hosting of millions of Afghan refugees and reliance on Afghanistan as a transit route for humanitarian aid underscore the ongoing importance of engagement. Nevertheless, Afghanistan’s perceived tilt towards India, through diplomatic outreach and people-to-people links, has heightened Pakistani concerns about regional influence. Overall, while geographic proximity necessitates engagement, trust deficits and ideological differences now define a relationship characterized more by tactical accommodation than strategic depth.
India-Pakistan Relations: Frozen Dialogue and Persistent Hostilities
India remains Pakistan’s most consequential neighbor, though relations have remained frozen since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. Cross-border skirmishes, espionage allegations, and stalled bilateral dialogue have made diplomatic normalization almost impossible. While both nations re-affirmed a ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC) in February 2021, no progress has been made on core disputes, including Kashmir, water-sharing, and trade normalization.
India’s growing global influence and strategic alignment with the United States, alongside Pakistan’s deepening ties with China, have placed the two neighbors on opposing ends of a regional Cold War. Pakistan’s attempts to internationalize the Kashmir issue have found limited resonance beyond traditional allies. Meanwhile, India’s media and political establishment often portray Pakistan as a perpetual security threat, impeding efforts for reconciliation. The result is a dangerous strategic stalemate, where nuclear-armed rivals remain locked in hostility with minimal diplomatic safeguards.
Iran-Pakistan Relations: Opportunities Undermined by Regional Rivalries
Pakistan’s relationship with Iran is often overshadowed by its ties with Saudi Arabia and the United States. Despite sharing a 900-kilometer border and cultural-religious affinities, bilateral relations remain tepid. On the positive side, both countries cooperate on border security, narcotics control, and limited trade, especially in electricity supply to Baluchistan. However, mutual suspicions over cross-border militant activity, the presence of Sunni extremist groups in Pakistan, and Iran’s regional alignment with anti-U.S. forces create persistent tension.
Moreover, U.S.-imposed sanctions on Iran have restricted Pakistan’s willingness to deepen energy cooperation, particularly the much-delayed Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project. In January 2024, a brief military exchange between the two countries over anti-regime elements in Baluchistan further underscored the fragile nature of the relationship. For Pakistan to benefit from Iranian energy and connectivity, it must delicately manage regional rivalries while addressing its own internal security gaps.
Central Asia and Beyond: Missed Opportunities in Multilateral Connectivity
Beyond immediate neighbors, Pakistan’s engagement with Central Asian republics has been driven by ambitions of regional trade and connectivity. Projects like the CASA-1000 energy corridor and the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan railway are strategically promising. However, recurring instability in Afghanistan, bureaucratic red tape, and lack of logistical infrastructure have slowed progress. Pakistan’s participation in forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) reflects its desire to build multilateral partnerships. Still, without stable ties with its immediate neighbors, broader regional integration remains aspirational rather than achievable
Asymmetry, Dependency, and the Case for a Coherent Regional Strategy
An analysis of Pakistan’s current regional relations reveals a pattern of dependency, asymmetry, and diplomatic inconsistency. While China remains a strategic anchor, economic overreliance and security concerns strain the partnership. Afghanistan, once seen as a sphere of influence, now presents a border management dilemma rather than a strategic buffer. Relations with India remain frozen and conflict-prone, while ties with Iran are underutilized due to geopolitical balancing. Without a coherent and independent foreign policy, Pakistan risks becoming reactive rather than proactive in regional affairs. Rebalancing these relationships requires institutional reform, civilian-led diplomacy, and strategic vision.
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Recalibrating Regional Ties Through Diplomacy and Strategic Balance
In conclusion, Pakistan’s regional relations are undergoing a turbulent transformation. While strategic partnerships, especially with China, remain intact, emerging economic, security, and ideological tensions require recalibrated engagement. With Afghanistan, the path forward demands pragmatic cooperation rather than reliance on outdated security doctrines. Constructive dialogue with India, though politically difficult, remains essential for long-term regional stability. Relations with Iran must be redefined through economic pragmatism and border cooperation. For Pakistan to navigate its regional geography effectively, it must embrace a foreign policy rooted in diplomatic balance, economic diversification, and civilian institutional leadership. Only then can it emerge as a credible regional player capable of shaping, rather than merely reacting to, its neighborhood.
