Pakistan’s geographical location places it at the epicenter of South Asia’s most volatile security dynamics, flanked by India to the east and Afghanistan to the west. Its relations with both neighbours are deeply rooted in historical grievances, unresolved disputes, and shifting strategic alignments. While engagement has occasionally offered brief windows for cooperation, the trajectory of these bilateral relationships continues to tilt toward uncertainty and risk. As Pakistan looks ahead, it must confront a growing constellation of threats—ranging from satellite warfare and diplomatic isolation to cross-border terrorism and water conflicts—that could challenge its national stability.
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The India-Pakistan relationship remains one of the most militarized and antagonistic rivalries in the modern world. Despite cultural and linguistic similarities, both nations remain locked in hostility, primarily over Kashmir. The 2019 abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which revoked Jammu and Kashmir's special status, further entrenched distrust and led to diplomatic disengagement and economic decoupling. Pakistan views this move not only as an erosion of Kashmir’s autonomy but as a wider Indian ambition to redefine borders unilaterally. Islamabad's response—expelling the Indian High Commissioner and suspending bilateral trade—demonstrates the depth of the crisis.
Beyond the territorial disputes lies another fault line: water security. The Indus Water Treaty, once lauded as a model for cooperative water sharing, is now a symbol of increasing discord. India’s ongoing construction of projects like Kishanganga and Ratle dams, perceived by Pakistan as violations of the treaty, adds a layer of existential anxiety. The Permanent Court of Arbitration's 2023 ruling in Pakistan's favour to proceed with dispute resolution procedures illustrates the seriousness of this issue. In a water-scarce region, control over transboundary rivers has become as strategic as nuclear capability.
The third critical layer of India-Pakistan tensions stems from strategic alignments. India’s deepening military ties with the United States have amplified Pakistan’s security concerns. Advanced weapon systems, arms trade waivers, and India’s inclusion in strategic alliances such as STA-1 status have disturbed the regional power balance. This alliance has accelerated an arms race that not only diverts essential resources but also heightens the risk of conflict through miscalculation.
On the western front, Pakistan’s ties with Afghanistan remain equally precarious. Despite shared ethnic and religious heritage, trust between Islamabad and Kabul has historically been fragile. The Durand Line remains a flashpoint, with Afghanistan refusing to accept it as the official border. Pakistan’s decision to fence it in 2017 prompted fierce resistance from Afghan authorities, culminating in violent border clashes. The 2022 shelling near Chaman, which killed civilians, highlighted how unresolved territorial disputes can easily spiral into humanitarian crises.
Perhaps more alarming than territorial disputes is the resurgence of cross-border terrorism. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), emboldened by ideological kinship with the Afghan Taliban, has ramped up its attacks on Pakistani soil. In 2024 alone, over 600 attacks have resulted in the deaths of 1,600 people, including 700 law enforcement officers, according to PICSS. The UN has confirmed Afghan territory is being used to facilitate such operations, fueling accusations that Kabul is either complicit or unable to restrain militant factions.
Despite these hostilities, trade and transit dependencies continue to necessitate diplomatic engagement. Pakistan remains Afghanistan’s largest trade partner, with exports nearly doubling in the 2024–25 fiscal year. The landlocked Afghan economy relies heavily on Pakistani ports, just as Islamabad looks to Afghanistan as a vital corridor to Central Asia. Yet this economic interdependence is not enough to override the strategic and ideological divergences that persist between the two.
Looking to the future, the spectrum of security threats is broad and evolving. India’s demonstrated capacity to develop and deploy anti-satellite weapons suggests a readiness to dominate space-based surveillance and warfare. With far less developed space capabilities, Pakistan risks becoming vulnerable to satellite-driven reconnaissance and disruption tactics in future conflicts. The widening technology gap increases the risk of asymmetric warfare that Islamabad may find difficult to deter or counter.
Diplomatically, India's rising stature poses additional challenges. From its position in the BRICS bloc to its growing influence in the Gulf and its aspirations in the UN Security Council, India’s political capital is outpacing that of Pakistan. Already, India has opposed Pakistan’s membership in BRICS, and its inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group could further restrict Islamabad’s nuclear ambitions. This marginalization in multilateral spaces will make it harder for Pakistan to shape global narratives around issues like Kashmir, terrorism, and regional development.
Perhaps most ominously, Pakistan faces the prospect of regional isolation, particularly due to the growing India-Afghanistan nexus. Afghanistan’s increasing reliance on Indian aid and its refusal to allow Pakistan-India rivalry to define its foreign policy marks a pivot that threatens Islamabad’s influence in Kabul. The decision by Afghanistan and India to boost trade through Iran’s Chabahar Port, bypassing Pakistani ports, signals a calculated decoupling. This trend could undermine Pakistan’s vision of becoming a transit hub to Central Asia if unaddressed.
Meanwhile, the resurgence of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), often linked to havens in Afghanistan, underscores the risk to Pakistan’s internal cohesion. Terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure, like the 2024 suicide bombing at a Quetta railway station, not only jeopardize national security but also erode public confidence in the state’s capacity to manage extremism. Furthermore, Afghanistan’s ambitious plans to construct 12 dams on the Kabul River, reportedly with Indian assistance, threaten to reduce Pakistan’s water supply, triggering a potential environmental and geopolitical crisis.
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To manage these multifaceted threats, Pakistan must adopt a nuanced and proactive strategy. First, enhancing space and cyber capabilities should become a priority to reduce vulnerability to India’s technological edge. Second, Islamabad must intensify diplomatic outreach in multilateral forums and form strategic economic alliances with Central Asia, the Middle East, and China to offset India’s expanding influence. Third, it should pursue regional counter-terrorism mechanisms, including intelligence sharing and Afghanistan border management. Through trade incentives, cultural exchange, and bilateral talks, a broader diplomatic engagement with Kabul can build the trust needed to neutralise India’s influence and reduce anti-Pakistan sentiment.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s strategic relations with India and Afghanistan are a complex web of history, geography, ideology, and power politics. While diplomacy and trade offer openings for cooperation, unresolved disputes and external alignments continue to fuel mistrust and hostility. Without a recalibrated strategy that balances deterrence with dialogue, Pakistan risks facing increasing security threats and diplomatic isolation in an already unstable region. The time for reactive policies is over; the imperative now is foresight, resilience, and comprehensive regional engagement.
