The strategic partnership evolving between the United States and India is not merely a bilateral affair but a reshaping force for South Asian geopolitics, carrying wide-reaching consequences for Pakistan’s relationships with both Washington and Beijing. As two of the world’s largest democracies find increasing convergence in their regional and global interests, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, the balance of power is slowly being recalibrated. For Pakistan, caught between the expanding Indo-US axis and its longstanding alliance with China, the implications are significant and complex.
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What began as a slow diplomatic thaw in the early 2000s has now matured into a deep-rooted partnership between India and the United States. While historical non-alignment and Cold War divisions once kept the two apart, shifts in global politics, especially the rise of China as a peer competitor to American power, have redefined their mutual priorities. India, seeking to establish itself as a regional power, has found in the United States both a strategic counterweight to China and a valuable partner in defense and technology. For Washington, New Delhi serves as an anchor of stability and a bulwark against growing Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
Over the past decade, a series of bilateral defense and technology agreements have crystallized this relationship. The Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), signed in 2016, allowed mutual access to military facilities for logistics support. This was followed by the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018, which granted India access to American encrypted communication systems, and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) in 2020, which gave India access to geospatial intelligence. Most recently, the 2023 US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) has pushed the boundaries of this collaboration into artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and space exploration.
These agreements are not mere paper commitments. They provide the framework for joint military exercises, defense interoperability, intelligence sharing, and arms transfers. At the same time, the growing trade between the two nations, exceeding $128 billion in 2022–23, has cemented their strategic alignment with an economic foundation. The granting of Strategic Trade Authorization-1 status to India, allowing it to import high-tech products from the United States with fewer restrictions, signals the trust and depth of this partnership.
While these developments offer clear benefits to India and the US, they are being watched closely in Islamabad and Beijing. For Pakistan, the growing closeness between Washington and New Delhi has strained its once-robust ties with the United States. Although Pakistan was a frontline ally during the Cold War and the war on terror, it finds itself increasingly sidelined in America’s new strategic calculus. The US pivot to the Indo-Pacific region has left Pakistan with diminishing visibility in American policy documents. Notably, Pakistan was not mentioned in the 2022 US National Security Strategy, an omission that speaks volumes.
This strategic shift has already produced visible consequences. The United States has imposed sanctions on suppliers linked to Pakistan’s missile development, signaling discomfort with Islamabad’s defense programs. Simultaneously, Washington has deepened its support for India’s military modernization, including nuclear technology. These double standards, punishing Pakistan while promoting India, have not gone unnoticed. Even in the diplomatic realm, the US position on Kashmir has softened considerably. Once framed as a dispute demanding international resolution, the Kashmir issue is now routinely referred to by American officials as a bilateral matter between India and Pakistan, to be resolved through dialogue. This shift, in effect, aligns with India’s preferred framing and leaves Pakistan diplomatically cornered.
Nevertheless, Pakistan is not without options. As US-India ties deepen, Pakistan has moved to strengthen its relationship with China, a partnership often described as “higher than the Himalayas, deeper than the oceans.” The China-Pakistan alliance, long rooted in strategic and military cooperation, has gained renewed momentum. Beijing remains Pakistan’s largest arms supplier, accounting for 40 percent of its defense imports. Joint military exercises, particularly naval collaborations such as the “Sea Guardian” series, underscore the growing synergy between the two forces.
In addition to defense, China and Pakistan are also collaborating in high-technology sectors. The launch of the ICUBE-Qamar lunar mission in 2024 marked an important milestone in space cooperation. Similarly, the establishment of the China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences reflects a growing emphasis on scientific collaboration. Pakistan has also been using China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system since 2018, enhancing its surveillance and strategic communication capabilities.
Economically, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), continues to be the centerpiece of bilateral cooperation. With over $25 billion already invested, primarily in energy and infrastructure, CPEC represents a long-term commitment to regional connectivity and economic integration. In tandem with the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement, these investments underscore the economic depth of the relationship.
Taken together, these developments indicate a clear regional reconfiguration. The Indo-US partnership, built on shared concerns over China’s assertiveness, has unintentionally pushed Pakistan further into Beijing’s orbit. For the United States, this may appear to be a calculated trade-off. However, ignoring Pakistan’s geostrategic relevance may prove short-sighted. As a nuclear-armed state located at the crossroads of Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia, Pakistan’s role in regional stability cannot be easily replaced or dismissed.
Moreover, the strengthening of strategic alliances in South Asia carries risks of militarization and arms races. As India boosts its naval and missile capabilities with US support, Pakistan may feel compelled to upgrade its own deterrent posture in cooperation with China. This dynamic could inject further instability into an already volatile region. The idea of an Asian NATO, once floated informally, has already triggered concerns in both Islamabad and Beijing. With the Indo-Pacific now a major theater of competition, even seemingly local skirmishes could have global reverberations.
Furthermore, the convergence of Washington and New Delhi on technological and economic fronts has deep implications for trade patterns, supply chains, and digital governance across the region. If Pakistan fails to align itself with the emerging technological and economic regimes of the 21st century, it risks being left behind. While Chinese support offers a temporary buffer, long-term development will require diversification of partners and the establishment of credible institutions at home.
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Critically, the reshaping of alliances is also a reflection of domestic political calculations. In India, the ruling BJP has framed strategic alignment with the US as a validation of its global rise. In the United States, India is seen as a democratic counterweight to China, an imperfect but necessary partner. In Pakistan, by contrast, foreign policy has often been reactive rather than proactive, shaped by short-term security imperatives rather than long-term strategic vision. This asymmetry is now bearing consequences.
In conclusion, the strategic partnership between India and the United States marks a significant transformation in South Asian geopolitics. Rooted in shared concerns about China, but expanding into technology, trade, and defense, the partnership carries both opportunities and challenges. For Pakistan, it signals the need to recalibrate foreign policy, solidify relations with China, and maintain diplomatic channels with the US where possible. The new regional architecture does not guarantee conflict, but it does require careful navigation. In this evolving strategic landscape, countries that adapt with foresight and coherence will shape the future, while those that do not will be shaped by it.
