For decades, U.S.-Pakistan relations have been shaped by fluctuating waves of strategic alignment and divergence, influenced by changing global priorities. However, under President Joe Biden, American foreign policy has undergone a marked transformation, resulting in a diminished role for Pakistan. The once-vital relationship, which flourished during the Cold War and the War on Terror, has weakened considerably, driven by a recalibrated Indo-Pacific strategy that positions India as Washington’s key regional partner. As military aid dwindles and economic support wanes, Pakistan stands at a crossroads, seeking new alliances and navigating the complexities of a multipolar world order.
Understanding the trajectory of U.S.-Pakistan relations requires an examination of the historical forces that have converged and diverged. During the Cold War, Pakistan aligned itself with the U.S. to counter Soviet influence in South Asia. This partnership strengthened further following the 9/11 attacks, when Pakistan played a frontline role in the global War on Terror. However, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, China’s rising influence, and shifting regional priorities have increasingly pushed Pakistan to the periphery of Washington’s strategic focus.
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The process of divergence began in the 1970s, when Pakistan distanced itself from Western-led security alliances, such as SEATO and CENTO. More recently, the widening rift has been exacerbated by Pakistan’s growing dependence on China and Washington’s strategy to counter Chinese influence through stronger Indo-Pacific alliances.
The Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific policy explicitly favors India as a regional counterbalance to China, leaving Pakistan sidelined. Several key developments illustrate the depth of this shift. Pakistan has traditionally been a recipient of substantial U.S. economic aid; however, under the Biden administration, this assistance has declined sharply. Before 2020, Pakistan received approximately $1.8 billion in annual economic support. However, this figure has been halved to $900 million, with Washington attaching stringent conditions on aid disbursement, citing Pakistan’s counterterrorism record. This financial withdrawal signals a broader strategy of disengagement.
The most visible sign of declining ties is the steep drop in U.S. military assistance to Pakistan. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, military aid has decreased from $1.2 billion before Biden’s tenure to just $300 million, representing a drastic 75% reduction. Joint military exercises, once a hallmark of strong security cooperation, have also declined. This shift leaves Pakistan more vulnerable to regional security threats, particularly in light of its ongoing tensions with India.
By contrast, the U.S. has significantly expanded its military and technological cooperation with India. Reports indicate that U.S. arms exports to India have increased by 500%, solidifying India’s status as Washington’s primary defense partner in South Asia. This realignment strengthens India’s regional position while weakening Pakistan’s diplomatic and strategic leverage.
Pakistan’s deepening economic ties with China, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, have drawn sharp criticism from Washington. The U.S. has raised concerns about the sustainability of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, warning of the risks of economic overdependence. While Pakistan views this $62 billion infrastructure project as a pathway to economic revitalization, Washington perceives it as part of a broader geopolitical contest with Beijing.
Mistrust has long been a feature of U.S.-Pakistan relations, yet it has escalated in recent years. A Pew Research Center survey indicates that 75% of Pakistanis hold unfavorable views of the U.S., fueled by America’s history of drone strikes and perceived interference in regional affairs. Conversely, Washington remains wary of Pakistan, frequently citing concerns about militant networks. This mutual skepticism has further widened the diplomatic divide between the two nations.
The weakening of U.S.-Pakistan relations has significant consequences for both countries. For Pakistan, the loss of American economic and military backing increases its dependence on China, a move that could limit its strategic autonomy. Additionally, heightened security concerns arise as the nation grapples with economic instability and ongoing tensions with India.
For the U.S., sidelining Pakistan carries its own risks. While India serves as a counterweight to China, ignoring Pakistan’s regional role could undercut broader American strategic objectives. Pakistan remains pivotal in Afghanistan’s stability, nuclear security, and counterterrorism efforts, making its cooperation, however limited, a matter of strategic importance.
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With Washington shifting away from Islamabad, Pakistan must recalibrate its foreign policy. Several paths emerge as viable options. Strengthening its alignment with China could provide economic benefits, but it comes with risks, including an overreliance on Beijing. Diversifying alliances by seeking stronger partnerships with Turkey, Russia, and the Gulf states could enhance Pakistan’s diplomatic flexibility. Additionally, recalibrating relations with the U.S. remains an option, albeit a challenging one. Addressing American concerns over counterterrorism and pursuing a more balanced diplomatic approach could create opportunities for renewed engagement.
The current state of U.S.-Pakistan relations under the Biden administration reflects a broader geopolitical transformation rather than a short-term shift. While the U.S. has established India as its key regional partner, Pakistan must navigate an increasingly complex global landscape with prudence. Whether by strengthening ties with China, expanding diplomatic partnerships, or reassessing its engagement with Washington, Pakistan’s foreign policy choices in the coming years will shape its standing in international affairs.
As alliances shift and priorities change, one reality remains constant: international diplomacy is fluid, and no partnership is permanent. Pakistan must now chart a course that safeguards its national interests while adapting to a rapidly transforming global order.
