The Indus River, which flows across the subcontinent, holds immense significance for the people of Pakistan and India, as it provides water that sustains agriculture, industry, and daily life. The river, one of the longest in the world, passes through regions that are heavily dependent on its waters for survival. According to the World Bank, the Indus Basin supports over 300 million people and sustains nearly 26 million hectares of agricultural land across both countries (World Bank, 2022). However, the management of these waters has been a point of contention between the two nations for decades. The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 after prolonged negotiations brokered by the World Bank, sought to prevent conflict over the river by dividing its waters between the two countries. Yet, over the years, the dynamics surrounding the treaty have shifted. With the changing climate, escalating water scarcity, and increasing agricultural demands, the treaty’s role in managing the river’s resources has become more complex and fraught with challenges. A UNDP report (2021) warns that both India and Pakistan are among the most water-stressed countries globally, with per capita availability falling below 1,000 cubic meters annually.
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The treaty allocated the three eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—to India and the three western rivers—Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum—to Pakistan, giving each country substantial but limited rights over the water flowing through these systems. Pakistan, which historically had relied on the waters from the western rivers, received the bulk of the river's water supply. India, meanwhile, was permitted to use the water of the western rivers only for non-consumptive purposes, such as irrigation, hydropower, and fisheries. The treaty, which was heralded as a milestone of cooperation between two bitter rivals, was designed to prevent future conflicts and ensure the equitable use of the Indus River system. In fact, despite the political tensions and military conflicts between India and Pakistan, the treaty has managed to survive, largely due to its clear-cut structure and the role of the Permanent Indus Commission, a body established to monitor and address issues regarding water management. Notably, during the 1965 and 1971 wars, the treaty remained operational, an exceptional case where an agreement endured despite full-scale conflict (Water Conflict Chronology).
Nevertheless, while the treaty’s effectiveness in maintaining peace over water disputes between the two countries cannot be understated, there are growing concerns that it is increasingly out of step with the environmental and geopolitical realities of the 21st century. Firstly, one of the treaty's most pressing issues lies in the ecological consequences it has wrought. The Indus River system is a fragile ecosystem, one that has borne the brunt of the demands placed on it by both countries. The construction of large-scale dams and water diversion projects, many of which have been undertaken in violation of the treaty’s terms, has led to significant changes in the flow of the river. For instance, the construction of India’s Kishanganga Dam, contested by Pakistan at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2013, was found to have altered the natural flow of the Neelum River, impacting downstream users. These projects, aimed at maximizing water availability for irrigation, have disrupted natural habitats, leading to a degradation of ecosystems along the river's course. A 2020 WWF report noted that water diversion and sediment flow reduction in the lower Indus have contributed to coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion in Sindh, threatening biodiversity and agriculture.
Furthermore, the treaty has failed to address the issue of groundwater depletion, which has reached alarming levels in both India and Pakistan. With both countries relying heavily on groundwater for agricultural irrigation, the over-extraction of water has become a pressing concern. According to NASA’s GRACE satellite data, the Indus Basin aquifer is the second-most overstressed in the world. The lack of comprehensive measures to manage groundwater resources under the treaty’s framework has contributed to the depletion of aquifers, particularly in Pakistan, where the Indus Basin is now considered one of the most over-stressed aquifers globally. According to the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR), 80% of groundwater in urban Pakistan is unsafe for drinking due to overuse and contamination. This unregulated extraction, combined with the increasing unpredictability of the river’s water supply due to shifting rainfall patterns and reduced snowfall in the Himalayan ranges, has placed immense pressure on the agricultural sector. The result is not only a loss of water for irrigation but also long-term damage to the region’s natural water reserves, which could have lasting implications for food security.
Moreover, the growing tensions between the two countries over water resources are increasingly evident in the form of political rhetoric and accusations. As both India and Pakistan struggle with mounting water scarcity, the treaty has been politicized. The strategic importance of the Indus River has made it a tool for political leverage. For instance, following the 2016 Uri attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made headlines by declaring that "water and blood cannot flow together," signaling India’s readiness to restrict the flow of water to Pakistan (The Hindu, 2016). This marked a significant shift from the treaty’s original purpose of fostering cooperation. Pakistan, for its part, has accused India of "water terrorism" by constructing dams and hydroelectric plants that it claims disrupt the flow of water. In 2018, Pakistan raised objections at the World Bank over the Ratle and Kishanganga projects, demanding a court of arbitration. These actions highlight the potential for water to become a bargaining chip in the broader political conflict between the two nations, further complicating an already fragile relationship.
The geopolitical implications of the Indus Waters Treaty are becoming increasingly evident as both countries recognize the strategic significance of the river system. In recent years, India’s construction of hydropower projects on the western rivers has raised alarm in Pakistan, with many arguing that these developments could disrupt the river’s flow and affect downstream water availability. In 2019, the Pakistani Senate’s Standing Committee on Water Resources claimed that India’s continued development on western rivers could "threaten Pakistan’s agricultural base and destabilize bilateral ties" (Dawn, 2019). The threat of water shortages due to these projects has intensified political tensions. In 2022, India announced the completion of the Shahpur Kandi project on the Ravi River, aimed at utilizing its allocated waters more efficiently. Pakistan feared that such projects could set a precedent for India's expanded water use. Such disputes have prompted calls for the treaty to be revised, especially as the political landscape of the region becomes more volatile and climate-related shocks become more frequent.
Additionally, the growing urgency of water scarcity has spurred debates about the need for the treaty to address new issues, such as climate change, population growth, and urbanization. A report by the Asian Development Bank (2020) highlighted that both countries will face "severe water crises" by 2030 if reforms to regional water governance are not undertaken. As climate change exacerbates the region's water stress, both countries will need to find innovative solutions to manage the river’s water more efficiently. The current treaty, signed over six decades ago, was designed for a different era and may no longer be sufficient to meet the challenges posed by these new realities. The issue of water scarcity is no longer just an environmental concern; it is a matter of national security for both nations. A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI, 2023) categorized South Asia as a “climate-conflict hotspot,” with water insecurity as a primary trigger for instability. With India and Pakistan facing the threat of climate-induced droughts and floods, the need for a more adaptive and sustainable approach to water management has never been greater.
The Indus Waters Treaty has undeniably contributed to the prevention of conflict over water resources between India and Pakistan. However, its current structure is no longer fully adequate to address the complex and evolving challenges of water management in the region. To ensure that the treaty remains relevant, it must be updated to account for the changing dynamics of climate change, population growth, and geopolitical tensions. In 2021, a joint academic study by the Observer Research Foundation (India) and the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT) recommended treaty modernization, including transboundary groundwater protocols, climate adaptation mechanisms, and environmental safeguards. A modernized approach to the treaty should include measures for more equitable and sustainable water use, as well as a focus on groundwater management. Both countries need to recognize the importance of collaborative efforts to ensure that the Indus River system continues to support the millions of people who depend on it.
As both nations move forward, the solution lies not in furthering political rivalry but in fostering cooperation and dialogue. The Indus River, rather than serving as a point of contention, can become a symbol of collaboration between India and Pakistan. In 2023, both countries participated in a World Bank–facilitated Indus Basin dialogue on sustainable river governance—an indication that communication lines remain open despite broader hostilities. By engaging in constructive dialogue, both countries can overcome the challenges posed by water scarcity and environmental degradation. The framework for cooperation provided by the Indus Waters Treaty, though imperfect, still offers an opportunity for both nations to work together for the greater good of the region.
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In conclusion, while the Indus Waters Treaty has played an essential role in preventing conflict and fostering cooperation, its limitations are becoming increasingly apparent. As climate change and water scarcity threaten the region’s stability, it is essential for India and Pakistan to engage in a comprehensive review of the treaty. A renewed commitment to cooperation and a willingness to address the emerging challenges of the 21st century will ensure that the Indus River continues to sustain the millions of people who depend on its waters. It is only through mutual understanding and collaboration that both countries can safeguard the future of the Indus River system and ensure a more secure and sustainable future for the people of South Asia.
