The intensifying threat of climate change has become a defining challenge for Pakistan, a country whose economy and survival are deeply tied to natural resources. As glaciers melt faster, rainfall patterns shift, and temperatures soar, the nation’s agriculture and water sectors stand on the frontline of environmental upheaval. Already ranked among the top ten countries most vulnerable to climate change by the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan is experiencing an ecological breakdown that is eroding its food security and threatening its water future. Hence, the growing impact of climate change and environmental degradation on Pakistan’s agriculture and water resources.
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Pakistan’s Vulnerable Geography and Climate Fragility
Pakistan’s geography, stretching from glacial highlands in the north to arid plains in the south, makes it exceptionally sensitive to climatic disruptions. The country relies heavily on the Indus River system, which is fed by Himalayan glacial melt and monsoon rains. Consequently, any change in temperature or precipitation drastically affects water availability, irrigation patterns, and agricultural outputs. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, average temperatures have risen by nearly 1°C over the last century, with projections indicating an increase of 2-3°C by 2050. Moreover, climate-induced events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves have become more frequent and destructive, amplifying the vulnerability of ecosystems and livelihoods across the country.
Agriculture and Water as Interdependent Pillars of National Security
Furthermore, agriculture employs nearly 38% of Pakistan’s labor force and contributes around 19% to the national GDP. Furthermore, crops such as wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane are lifelines for rural communities and central to food security. Simultaneously, over 90% of Pakistan’s freshwater is consumed by agriculture, making water availability crucial for economic sustainability. However, unchecked environmental degradation, ranging from deforestation and soil erosion to river pollution and groundwater depletion, has compounded the effects of climate change. Together, these trends threaten not only rural livelihoods but also national cohesion, urban stability, and cross-border water diplomacy.
Glacial Retreat and Irregular River Flow Disrupt Water Supply Chains
One of the most visible impacts of climate change in Pakistan is the accelerated melting of glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region, which feeds the Indus River Basin. For instance, studies by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) reveal that Pakistan’s glaciers are retreating at a rate of 1.1% annually, posing long-term risks to water continuity. Initially, increased meltwater may lead to floods and soil erosion, but in the long run, glacial depletion threatens dry seasons with reduced flow, critically affecting irrigation schedules, hydropower generation, and reservoir management. Thus, the unpredictable river flow challenges traditional farming calendars, leaving farmers unable to plan planting or harvesting cycles with confidence.
Extreme Weather Events Devastate Agricultural Productivity
Pakistan is increasingly exposed to extreme climate events, ranging from prolonged droughts in Baluchistan and Sindh to record-breaking floods like those in 2022, which submerged one-third of the country, and the 2025 riverine floods that devastated Punjab’s fertile plains. According to reports, the 2022 floods alone caused an estimated $30 billion in economic losses, with agriculture bearing the brunt: over 8 million acres of crops were destroyed, and livestock losses devastated rural incomes. The 2025 floods caused an estimated $2.9 billion in total damages, with agriculture alone accounting for over $1.5 billion in losses as approximately 1.3 million acres of crops were submerged in the Punjab province. Similarly, recurring droughts in Tharparkar and Cholistan have rendered large tracts of farmland unproductive. These disruptions not only reduce crop yields and food availability but also trigger rural-urban migration, poverty escalation, and political unrest. Thus, without a national disaster mitigation strategy focused on climate resilience, agricultural recovery remains ad hoc and insufficient.
Soil Degradation and Desertification Reduce Arable Land
Environmental degradation driven by over-cultivation, waterlogging, salinity, and deforestation has led to the steady decline of arable land in Pakistan. According to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), nearly 44% of the country’s land is prone to desertification. Fertile plains in Punjab and Sindh are losing productivity due to unsustainable irrigation practices, excessive chemical use, and poor drainage systems. As the topsoil erodes and organic matter declines, the ability of land to retain moisture and nutrients diminishes, reducing agricultural efficiency and increasing dependence on costly fertilizers. Therefore, his soil fatigue, if left unchecked, could trigger a long-term collapse of rural economies and food production.
Groundwater Depletion and Poor Water Management Compound Crisis
Water stress is no longer a future threat; it is Pakistan’s present reality. For instance, the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) warns that the country could run dry by 2040 if current consumption patterns continue. Groundwater, which accounts for nearly 60% of agricultural use, is being extracted at unsustainable rates, particularly in Punjab’s wheat and rice belts. In urban areas like Lahore, the water table has dropped by over 50 feet in two decades. Meanwhile, surface water is poorly regulated: canal losses, unlined irrigation channels, and theft further reduce availability. Therefore, without investment in efficient irrigation technologies such as drip and sprinkler systems, or policy reform for pricing and regulation, water shortages will escalate, undermining both agriculture and urban stability.
Institutional Gaps and Policy Incoherence Hinder Climate Adaptation
Despite growing awareness, Pakistan’s institutional response to climate change remains fragmented and underfunded. For example, ministries and departments responsible for water, agriculture, and environment often operate in silos, lacking coordination or shared data systems. Furthermore, climate adaptation projects, such as the Green Stimulus Programmed or the National Water Policy, exist more on paper than in implementation. In addition, provincial disparities in water management and land use regulations further complicate nationwide responses. Moreover, political short-termism and elite capture of water resources prevent comprehensive reforms. Consequently, without integrated policy frameworks and empowered local institutions, resilience against environmental collapse remains elusive.
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Structural Issues and Missed Opportunities
Pakistan’s agriculture and water sectors are facing a dual threat: the structural degradation caused by poor resource management and the accelerating impact of climate change. While external shocks like floods and droughts capture headlines, the slow erosion of land quality, inefficient irrigation, and institutional inertia are equally destructive. The absence of climate-resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and long-term policy planning has left Pakistan poorly equipped to protect its natural resource base. Therefore, addressing these challenges demands not just environmental reforms but a rethinking of governance, planning, and public awareness.
Toward Resilience Through Bold Action
In conclusion, climate change and environmental degradation are converging to create an existential crisis for Pakistan’s agriculture and water systems. Glacial melt, soil exhaustion, water scarcity, and extreme weather are no longer isolated phenomena, they are interconnected symptoms of an ecological system in distress. If Pakistan is to avert widespread food insecurity, rural collapse, and regional water conflicts, it must adopt a holistic and science-based approach. This includes investing in climate-smart agriculture, regulating groundwater use, rehabilitating degraded land, and strengthening institutional coordination. Thus, the time for half-measures has passed. The survival of Pakistan’s environment, and its future generations, depends on bold, sustained, and inclusive action.
