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LEMOA and the Shifting Balance of Power in the Indo-Pacific

Sir Ammar Hashmi

Sir Ammar Hashmi, a CSS qualifier, coaches General Ability & Current Affairs.

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19 November 2025

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The 2016 signing of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) between India and the United States marked a pivotal moment in Indo-Pacific geopolitics. It enhanced operational coordination, naval reach, and strategic convergence between the two democracies, particularly in countering China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean. However, this cooperation has also triggered regional anxieties, intensified great power rivalry, and complicated security calculations for smaller states. As LEMOA reshapes the balance of power, the region faces mounting risks of militarization, mistrust, and strategic miscalculation. Without robust diplomatic frameworks and multilateral engagement, its benefits may come at the cost of long-term regional stability.

LEMOA and the Shifting Balance of Power in the Indo-Pacific

The evolving strategic architecture of the Indo-Pacific has witnessed a significant shift with the signing of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement between India and the United States in 2016. This landmark agreement marked a milestone in the deepening of bilateral relations, enabling both countries to access each other’s military facilities for logistics and refueling purposes. While on the surface this may appear to be a routine strategic engagement, its broader implications have been far from ordinary. The agreement signified more than just enhanced cooperation; it embodied the changing power dynamics in the Indian Ocean Region and revealed how regional actors are recalibrating their strategies to manage the growing influence of China.

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Since the end of the Cold War, India and the United States have progressively shed their earlier skepticism to build a robust partnership. This evolution has been driven by overlapping strategic interests, particularly the shared objective of countering China’s expanding footprint in the region. As Washington reoriented its focus from a Pacific-centric to an Indo-Pacific policy, New Delhi found itself increasingly valued as a strategic partner. This convergence led to a series of foundational agreements, with LEMOA being one of the most consequential. It granted both sides reciprocal access to designated military facilities for supplies and services, thereby streamlining joint operations and facilitating humanitarian assistance, disaster response, port visits, and military exercises.

For India, the significance of this agreement lies not only in its immediate utility but in the long-term strategic dividends it offers. With access to American military infrastructure and logistics, India has significantly enhanced its naval strength and operational reach in the Indian Ocean. This strengthens India’s posture as a maritime power capable of asserting influence across sea lanes that are critical for global commerce. The United States, for its part, gains a reliable partner in a region central to its rebalancing strategy, while simultaneously reinforcing its containment arc around China.

India's military capabilities, particularly in the maritime domain, have seen a marked improvement. The agreement allows India to plug into a wider logistics network, effectively extending the endurance of its naval deployments. It also supports India's effort to neutralize China’s “String of Pearls” strategy, an informal network of Chinese military and commercial facilities stretching across the Indian Ocean that could potentially encircle India. Through LEMOA, India gains access to advanced naval training, joint operations, and intelligence sharing, thereby raising its operational sophistication.

Moreover, this strategic accord complements India’s broader economic and diplomatic goals. By reinforcing its military might, India sends a clear message to potential trade partners about its capacity to safeguard maritime commerce in the region. The Indian Ocean is a vital artery for global trade, and stability in this region is pivotal for economic growth. By enhancing its naval capabilities, India positions itself as a guardian of these vital sea lanes, increasing its attractiveness as a regional leader and economic ally.

Beyond the bilateral benefits, LEMOA has helped India forge closer ties with other key players in the Indo-Pacific. After its agreement with the United States, India proceeded to sign similar logistics-sharing pacts with countries such as France, Japan, and Australia. These engagements are not merely symbolic; they constitute an emerging web of strategic partnerships anchored in shared democratic values and mutual concerns about China’s assertive behavior. This strategic networking has facilitated the formation and strengthening of regional groupings like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which collectively seeks to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific.

However, while the agreement has fortified India’s position, it has also stirred the waters of regional security. One of the most immediate consequences of LEMOA has been the deepening of strategic competition in the Indian Ocean Region. China, already wary of the growing US-India proximity, perceives such developments as attempts to encircle or contain its rise. This perception has prompted Beijing to increase its own naval deployments and accelerate infrastructure development along key maritime chokepoints. In essence, the Indian Ocean has begun to mirror the security dilemmas of the South China Sea, with rival powers jockeying for influence and control.

The enhanced military coordination between India and the United States also risks unsettling the fragile equilibrium of strategic deterrence in South Asia. With India emerging as a preferred security partner for the United States, neighboring states such as Pakistan interpret this tilt as a shift in the regional balance of power. This perception compels them to pursue countermeasures, often in the form of increased defense spending or closer ties with rival powers like China. The result is an arms race that inflames existing tensions and reduces the room for diplomatic resolution.

Furthermore, India’s growing regional influence, enabled in part by LEMOA, has triggered anxieties about its hegemonic ambitions. The agreement allows India to project power deep into the Indian Ocean, giving it a decisive advantage over smaller neighboring states that lack comparable capabilities. While India frames its actions as contributing to regional stability, others may see them as efforts to dominate the regional order. This dynamic erodes trust and complicates efforts at multilateral cooperation.

New security challenges are also emerging for smaller regional actors. As India gains greater operational reach and access to advanced technologies, other countries find themselves navigating an increasingly complex security environment. The perceived imbalance encourages defensive alignments, some of which could involve external powers, thereby internationalizing regional disputes. For instance, the inclusion of American forces in Indian facilities, though framed as logistical cooperation, raises questions about the potential for entanglement in regional crises. This is particularly relevant in contested zones such as Ladakh, where recent skirmishes between India and China have rekindled memories of unresolved border tensions.

Another concern relates to the timing of LEMOA’s signing, which coincided with heightened tensions in Kashmir. This timing has led many to conclude that Washington’s strategic calculus overrides its commitment to democratic norms or regional sensitivities. Such perceptions weaken the credibility of the United States as a neutral actor and reinforce the narrative that strategic interests trump ethical considerations. These complications are not merely symbolic—they have real-world implications for how regional actors calibrate their foreign and security policies.

India’s procurement of specialized military equipment from the United States, such as the Extreme Weather Clothing Systems for soldiers stationed in high-altitude zones like Ladakh, further illustrates the depth of this partnership and the specific focus on countering Chinese advancements. While these measures may bolster India’s defense posture, they simultaneously contribute to an environment of suspicion and reaction, where each step by one actor is interpreted as a provocation by another.

The growing militarization of the Indian Ocean, catalyzed in part by agreements like LEMOA, also raises broader concerns about the erosion of strategic restraint. As more naval assets are deployed and more exercises are conducted, the risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation increases. These risks are not hypothetical, they are grounded in the reality of frequent encounters between rival forces in increasingly contested spaces. The militarization of logistics hubs and port facilities also affects civilian maritime traffic, with potential repercussions for international trade and energy security.

While LEMOA has undoubtedly strengthened India's strategic hand and advanced US interests in the Indo-Pacific, it is not without costs. The region now finds itself more polarized, more volatile, and more prone to strategic miscalculation. The growing entanglement of great power competition with local rivalries has made the task of regional governance and diplomacy all the more difficult.

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In this context, regional actors must exercise greater diplomatic agility and foresight. Multilateral institutions and regional platforms such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association must be revitalized to provide mechanisms for dialogue and dispute resolution. Confidence-building measures, transparency in military activities, and codes of conduct for naval operations can help reduce the risks associated with increasing military proximity. Without such steps, the gains of bilateral agreements may come at the expense of long-term regional stability.

Ultimately, the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement reflects the shifting balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. It symbolizes India’s ascent as a strategic actor and underscores America’s enduring interest in countering the rise of China. However, it also reveals the unintended consequences of such strategic alignments, particularly for regional peace and security. As India and the United States deepen their cooperation, they must also consider the broader regional landscape and the ripple effects of their choices. Stability in the Indian Ocean cannot be secured through power projection alone; it must also rest on inclusive dialogue, balanced engagement, and mutual respect among all regional stakeholders.

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19 November 2025

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Sir Ammar Hashmi

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