The commissioning of India’s first indigenous nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, INS Arihant, has significantly altered the strategic terrain of South Asia. When it slipped beneath the waves as a fully operational asset in 2016, India quietly crossed a milestone that only a handful of states have reached, the completion of its nuclear triad. By achieving the capacity to deliver nuclear weapons from land, air, and now sea, India has not only expanded its deterrent posture but also reshaped the contours of regional security. Though hailed by Indian strategic circles as a symbol of technological self-reliance and maritime strength, the development of Arihant has raised fundamental questions about the future of stability in one of the world’s most volatile neighborhoods.
Follow CPF WhatsApp Channel for Daily Exam Updates
Cssprepforum, led by Sir Syed Kazim Ali, supports 70,000+ monthly aspirants with premium CSS/PMS prep. Follow our WhatsApp Channel for daily CSS/PMS updates, solved past papers, expert articles, and free prep resources.
The submarine’s significance lies not just in its stealth and survivability but in the nature of deterrence it brings to the maritime domain. Sea-based nuclear weapons are inherently more secure against preemptive strikes, and thus, more credible in the calculus of second-strike capability. For India, whose security planners have long been wary of China’s naval expansion and its submarine patrols across the Indian Ocean, Arihant’s deployment marks a step forward in asserting presence and parity. It allows India to project strength far from its shores and, equally, to signal resolve closer to home.
However, regional dynamics do not operate in isolation. Every stride in capability by one actor invariably triggers a recalibration by another. In this case, Pakistan, a state that shares a history of deep strategic mistrust with India, has found itself in an increasingly precarious position. Lacking equivalent undersea platforms, Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence architecture now appears more vulnerable, prompting concerns in Islamabad over strategic imbalance. In the absence of a comparable SSBN program, Pakistan may resort to alternative means of ensuring survivability: possibly by increasing mobility of existing delivery systems or pursuing sea-launched cruise missiles, such as the Babur-3, which has already undergone testing.
Furthermore, the nuclearization of the Indian Ocean brings with it a range of risks that extend beyond traditional deterrence theory. Unlike land-based weapons, submarines operate in an environment where communication is limited, delays are expected, and misinterpretation is always possible. In times of crisis, the fog of war thickens undersea. A sonar ping misread, a submarine trail misinterpreted, or an unexpected naval maneuver could spiral into open conflict. These risks are amplified by the fact that South Asia lacks robust protocols for maritime deconfliction or confidence-building between navies, making encounters at sea dangerously unpredictable.
The deployment of Arihant also represents a broader shift in India’s strategic doctrine, from one of reactive defense to forward-leaning assertiveness. This is not merely a technical or tactical evolution but a political signal. With the United States increasingly treating India as a pillar of its Indo-Pacific strategy, and with forums like the Quad gathering momentum, Arihant fits neatly into a wider matrix of deterrence aimed at countering China’s assertiveness. India’s ability to patrol critical sea lanes with nuclear-capable platforms lends it leverage not just in South Asia but across the Indo-Pacific arc.
Yet, this leverage comes at a cost. As India moves to dominate the Indian Ocean, smaller regional states may find themselves caught in the undertow of great-power competition. For instance, any perception that India could use its SSBN to enforce sea denial or blockade critical chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Malacca Strait, raises alarms in capitals like Islamabad and Beijing. This, in turn, has the potential to escalate military deployments and erode trust among neighbors.
Equally troubling is the economic burden imposed by such a maritime arms race. Developing and maintaining a fleet of SSBNs is not merely a matter of engineering; it is a drain on national resources. For Pakistan, a country grappling with structural economic challenges and periodic crises of balance of payments, competing toe-to-toe with India’s maritime expansion may lead to unsustainable trade-offs. Allocating funds for submarine-launched nuclear weapons may divert attention from critical sectors such as health, education, or infrastructure, all of which are already underfunded. Moreover, as both countries increase surveillance and maritime patrolling, tensions will inevitably spill over into civilian navigation and trade flows, further tightening the noose around regional development.
Beyond the geopolitical and economic consequences, there is the looming shadow of nuclear proliferation. India’s commissioning of Arihant, while a sovereign right, occurs outside the formal structure of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Though India has garnered tacit acceptance from several Western powers, its advancement outside global non-proliferation norms could weaken those same norms, sending a signal to aspiring nuclear states that international recognition is possible without adherence to treaty obligations. In the long term, this erodes the credibility of the global arms control regime and may encourage others to pursue parallel pathways.
Environmental risks must also not be overlooked. Operating a nuclear reactor at sea is fraught with dangers, particularly in regions with limited emergency response infrastructure. Accidents involving submarines, while rare, can result in radioactive contamination with devastating ecological and human consequences. The Indian Ocean, home to some of the world’s most densely populated coastal cities and diverse marine ecosystems, cannot afford such hazards. A single incident, be it a collision, reactor malfunction, or containment breach, would leave a trail of destruction spanning borders, food chains, and generations.
Despite these concerns, regional dialogues on nuclear risk management and naval de-escalation remain conspicuously absent. While South Asia has seen some success in establishing crisis communication lines and missile test pre-notifications, there is little equivalent focus on undersea capabilities. As countries modernize their arsenals and doctrines, the lack of transparency surrounding submarine operations becomes a serious blind spot. Without mutual understanding, any naval encounter, planned or accidental, could be interpreted as an act of provocation, setting off a chain of escalation that neither side may be able to control.
In this light, the deployment of INS Arihant is not merely a technical milestone; it is a test of strategic maturity. If India’s maritime assertion is matched by proportionate engagement in regional arms control, transparency, and risk reduction, it may indeed become a stabilizing force. However, if the capability is pursued without diplomatic outreach or strategic reassurance to neighboring states, it will only fuel suspicion and rivalry. Similarly, Pakistan must weigh the costs of keeping pace in a game where the stakes are high and the returns uncertain. Rather than mirroring India’s moves submarine-for-submarine, it could focus on asymmetric strategies, diplomacy, and restraint, avenues that are often cheaper and no less effective.
The responsibility does not lie with India and Pakistan alone. International stakeholders, including the United Nations and maritime cooperation platforms like the Indian Ocean Rim Association, must play a more proactive role in facilitating dialogue. Confidence-building measures specific to SSBNs, submarine tracking, and naval exercises in shared waters are essential steps. Additionally, academic and policy forums must explore and promote the idea of a “No First Use at Sea” commitment, an innovation that could inject predictability and restraint into an otherwise unpredictable domain.
CSS Solved Current Affairs Past Papers
Unlock the power of insight with CSS Solved Current Affairs (2010 – To Date) by Sir Ammar Hashmi; your ultimate guide to mastering CSS with precision, clarity, and confidence!
The Indian Ocean, once a passive trade corridor, is now the theatre of a complex power play, where strategic ambition collides with regional fragility. INS Arihant is emblematic of this new era. It embodies India’s rise, its maritime aspirations, and its desire for deterrent credibility. But it also lays bare the structural risks of an arms race at sea, risks that are magnified in regions where history runs deep and trust is shallow.
If South Asia is to navigate this new underwater frontier without capsizing into conflict, it must invest not only in submarines but also in conversations. It must prioritize dialogue over dominance, communication over confrontation, and restraint over rivalry. Only then can the depths of the Indian Ocean remain a zone of peace, rather than a graveyard of miscalculation.
