The Pakistan-Afghanistan ties has never been easy to define. Over the decades, it has oscillated between pragmatic cooperation and deep-seated suspicion, with geopolitical compulsions often shaping its course more than shared cultural affinities. In recent years, the trajectory has shifted once again, moving from the cautious friendship once touted as a regional stabilizer toward a tense estrangement defined by border skirmishes, refugee pressures, and competing security interests. Against this backdrop, this editorial unpacks the historical context of this fraught partnership, explores the major arguments behind its shifting dynamics, and examines whether both nations can salvage any remnants of goodwill in the midst of rising hostility and mutual recrimination.
Pakistan and Afghanistan share a 2,600-kilometer border, known as the Durand Line, a colonial-era demarcation that has never been fully accepted by successive Afghan governments. This line is both a literal and symbolic frontier, embodying decades of contestation over sovereignty, national identity, and regional influence. Following Pakistan’s creation in 1947, Afghanistan was notably the only country to oppose its admission to the United Nations, citing unresolved territorial claims. Nonetheless, despite this rocky start, the two nations have often depended on each other. For instance, Pakistan provided sanctuary to millions of Afghan refugees during the Soviet invasion, while Afghanistan relied heavily on Pakistani trade and logistical networks.
However, this fragile interdependence came under significant strain in the post-9/11 era. The US-led war on terror blurred the lines between cross-border militancy and national security prerogatives. Pakistan has consistently accused Afghanistan of harboring elements of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which have targeted Pakistani security forces, while Afghan leaders have alleged that Pakistan shelters the Afghan Taliban leadership and manipulates events in Kabul. When the Afghan Taliban returned to power in August 2021, there were renewed hopes that bilateral relations might normalize. Instead, new frictions quickly emerged over security operations, refugee repatriation, and contested loyalties.
As things stand today, both governments find themselves at an impasse. Pakistan struggles to contain militancy it believes emanates from Afghan soil, while Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers resent what they perceive as Pakistani interference and pressure. Consequently, as both sides harden their positions, the rift risks not only undermining regional stability but also eroding any prospects of meaningful cooperation.
Why are Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan so Tense?
Historical Grievances and the Durand Line
To begin with, one cannot understand the estrangement between Pakistan and Afghanistan without examining the Durand Line, drawn in 1893 by British India and signed by Afghan Amir Abdur Rahman Khan under duress. For over a century, this line has remained Afghanistan’s most enduring grievance, fueling irredentist claims over Pakistan’s Pashtun belt. Whereas Pakistan considers the Durand Line an international boundary, Afghanistan has steadfastly refused to recognize it as legitimate. This dispute has profound implications. It feeds Afghan perceptions of historical injustice and reinforces suspicions that Pakistan is not merely a neighbor but an occupier of “Afghan lands.” In fact, successive Afghan governments, including the Taliban regime in the 1990s, have publicly rejected the Durand Line—most recently in 2017 when then-President Ashraf Ghani declared it a "line of hatred." Conversely, Pakistani policymakers view Afghan irredentism as a threat to national integrity and a potential catalyst for separatism among Pakistani Pashtuns. Thus, this unresolved question, simmering since 1947, periodically resurfaces to poison even the most well-intentioned diplomatic engagements.
Security Dilemmas and Cross-Border Militancy
A second major factor driving the estrangement is the intensifying security dilemma. Pakistan has long alleged that the TTP enjoys sanctuaries in Afghanistan’s eastern provinces, launching attacks against its forces and civilians. Despite repeated assurances, Islamabad argues that the Taliban’s ideological affinity with the TTP results in operational leniency. Conversely, Afghan leaders, both from the previous government and the current Taliban regime, accuse Pakistan of interfering in Afghan affairs by sheltering the Haqqani network and other insurgent factions. In 2021, UN reports confirmed that the TTP retained a presence in eastern Afghanistan, with some Taliban elements maintaining ties. These mutual accusations have created a vicious cycle: each country sees its own actions as defensive and the other’s as hostile. The situation has deteriorated since the Taliban’s return to power, with Pakistan’s expectations of a crackdown on the TTP going unmet. Moreover, the border fence, once seen as a stabilizing step, has become a new flashpoint, triggering cross-border skirmishes, disrupting trade, and inflaming nationalist passions.
Refugee Pressures and Humanitarian Concerns
Another pillar of the deteriorating relationship is the refugee crisis. Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees since the Soviet invasion—a humanitarian commitment that has shaped generations of Afghans living in exile. However, in recent years, this hospitality has increasingly collided with domestic political pressures and economic strains. In particular, as Pakistan faces rising inflation, security concerns, and resource constraints, the narrative around Afghan refugees has shifted from one of solidarity to suspicion. Authorities argue that refugee settlements have been exploited by criminal networks and militant groups. According to Pakistan’s Ministry of Interior, over 14,000 Afghans were detained in 2023 alone for illegal residency and alleged involvement in unlawful activities. Consequently, in October 2023, Pakistan announced plans to repatriate hundreds of thousands of undocumented Afghans, triggering international criticism and Afghan resentment.
Economic Frictions and Trade Disruptions
In addition to security and humanitarian issues, economic interdependence—once viewed as a stabilizing force—has also become a battleground. Pakistan has long served as a crucial trade corridor for Afghan goods, with Karachi acting as a lifeline for imports. Theoretically, the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) was designed to facilitate commercial exchanges and promote mutual prosperity. In practice, though, bureaucratic obstacles, border closures, and rising tariffs have stifled trade flows. Afghan traders regularly complain of harassment, delays, and arbitrary restrictions, while Pakistani officials cite security considerations and smuggling concerns to justify stricter controls. According to the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment, bilateral trade declined by over 40% between 2021 and 2023, largely due to such restrictions. Recently, tensions have escalated over Pakistan’s curbs on imports and repeated suspension of cross-border movement, fueling frustration among Afghan businesses already grappling with international sanctions and isolation. Thus, these economic frictions illustrate how estrangement extends beyond politics and security into the daily livelihoods of millions.
The Erosion of Diplomatic Channels and Regional Implications
Perhaps most worrying is the systematic erosion of diplomatic engagement. While both sides continue to maintain formal embassies and consulates, their communications have grown increasingly adversarial. Islamabad frequently lodges protests over Afghan territory being used by militants, while Kabul counters with accusations of airspace violations and intimidation. According to a UNAMA report in 2023, more than a dozen cross-border incidents were officially recorded, each contributing to rising hostility and mistrust. This breakdown in dialogue not only undermines any prospects for conflict resolution but also has broader consequences for regional stability. Both countries are pivotal to the future of Central and South Asia, especially in relation to connectivity projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the TAPI gas pipeline. Without stable bilateral relations, these initiatives risk being derailed or indefinitely delayed. Hence, for external actors—including China, Russia, and the United States—this worsening relationship represents both a security headache and a missed opportunity to align shared interests against extremism and economic stagnation.
While it is tempting to attribute the current state of affairs solely to the Taliban’s resurgence or Pakistan’s security doctrine, a more nuanced analysis reveals that the roots of estrangement run deeper. Structural grievances such as the Durand Line dispute, mutual suspicions about interference, and diverging visions for regional security have created a minefield of mistrust. Even so, neither country benefits from perpetual hostility. The erosion of trade ties, the burden of refugees, and the growing strength of transnational militant networks ultimately threaten both states’ national interests. Therefore, the real challenge is whether leaders on both sides can summon the political courage to address longstanding grievances while forging a new compact grounded in pragmatism rather than historical animosity.
In conclusion, the arc from friendship to estrangement in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations is neither linear nor inevitable. It reflects the weight of unresolved history, the pressures of modern security dilemmas, and the failure to develop durable institutions for cooperation. At this critical juncture, both nations stand at a crossroads. They can either continue down the path of mutual recrimination—risking further instability and isolation—or they can seize the moment to redefine their partnership on terms that respect each other’s sovereignty and shared aspirations. Ultimately, the future trajectory of their relationship will depend on whether leaders can look beyond short-term political gains and embrace a vision of regional stability anchored in dialogue, compromise, and mutual respect. In essence, the journey from friendship to estrangement is a cautionary tale—one that reveals how proximity and shared heritage are never sufficient to guarantee harmony when history remains unhealed and trust is perpetually in short supply.
