Pakistan's vulnerability to climate change is no longer a matter of distant concern but a lived reality marked by recurring disasters, ecological degradation, and policy paralysis. The recent floods, intensifying heatwaves, erratic rainfall patterns, and melting glaciers are all symptomatic of a crisis that has grown under decades of state neglect and mismanagement. Yet, amid the increasing urgency, Pakistan continues to pursue environmental policy through an outdated, reactionary lens that fails to match the scale or complexity of the climate emergency. In this vacuum, the consequences are multiplying, deepening structural inequalities, threatening food and water security, and compounding the country's socio-economic fragility.
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Pakistan is among the ten countries most affected by climate-related disasters. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan ranked fifth among countries most affected by climate-induced catastrophes between 1999 and 2018. The country contributes less than one percent to global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it remains one of the most climate-vulnerable nations due to its geography, weak institutions, and poor infrastructure. Instead of transitioning toward resilience and adaptation, the state remains caught between underfunded policy announcements and bureaucratic lethargy. The Ministry of Climate Change remains chronically under-resourced, and inter-provincial coordination is almost non-existent, despite the 18th Amendment having devolved environmental responsibilities to provinces.
One glaring failure has been the absence of a coherent national adaptation plan. In theory, Pakistan’s National Climate Change Policy of 2012 laid the groundwork for resilience and sustainable development. However, implementation has remained stagnant, and updates to this framework have been more cosmetic than substantive. Despite the launch of initiatives such as the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami, questions around transparency, impact evaluation, and long-term maintenance have gone unanswered. In the absence of accountability, even well-intentioned policies are reduced to public relations exercises. A report by the Auditor General of Pakistan in 2023 revealed discrepancies worth billions in plantation records and survival rates under the flagship reforestation program.
While Pakistan has developed multiple policies on climate, energy, and water over the years, these documents often work in silos, lacking synergy or shared implementation frameworks. Moreover, the state’s heavy reliance on international climate finance has diluted its policy ownership. Most climate projects are donor-driven, which creates a disjointed landscape of short-term interventions without integration into a long-term national strategy. Policymakers often prioritize visibility over viability, focusing on externally funded programs while overlooking the foundational need to strengthen local governance, scientific research, and early warning systems. In the case of the 2022 floods, early signs of unusual monsoon behavior were visible in meteorological data, but disaster response remained delayed and disorganized.
Water stress poses a looming threat to Pakistan’s agriculture-dependent economy. The World Bank estimates that Pakistan's per capita water availability has declined from 5,000 cubic meters in 1951 to less than 1,000 cubic meters today, placing the country in the water-scarce category. The Indus River System, which supports the bulk of the country's agriculture, is under immense stress due to mismanagement, unchecked groundwater extraction, and glacial melt. Yet, Pakistan has failed to invest in large-scale water conservation, storage, and recycling infrastructure. Climate-induced droughts and floods are not anomalies but symptoms of a deeply misaligned development model that prioritizes expansion over sustainability.
Urbanization has compounded the crisis, particularly in megacities like Karachi and Lahore, where unregulated construction, deforestation, and weak municipal oversight have intensified climate vulnerability. Heatwaves in Karachi have repeatedly turned fatal. A study by The Lancet found that the 2015 heatwave, which killed over 1,200 people in Karachi, was exacerbated by lack of tree cover, poor urban planning, and inadequate public health response. But even after such deadly events, lessons go unlearned. Building codes remain unenforced, green spaces continue to shrink, and climate-resilient infrastructure is still an afterthought.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s energy sector remains dominated by fossil fuels, despite repeated pledges to transition to renewables. Coal-based projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) continue to receive support, even as solar and wind projects face regulatory delays and financing hurdles. The long-term costs of this model are both environmental and economic. Rising temperatures and carbon emissions will not only affect human health but will also reduce agricultural productivity and strain public health systems. Transitioning to clean energy is not merely a climate obligation but an economic necessity, particularly for a country struggling with balance-of-payments crises and energy imports.
Institutionally, climate governance suffers from fragmentation. The federal and provincial governments operate with poor coordination. There is a lack of climate data transparency, inadequate investment in scientific research, and absence of climate education in curricula. Public awareness remains low, and local governments are neither equipped nor empowered to deal with disasters. Capacity-building initiatives are rare, and technical expertise within public institutions is scarce. Climate change is often treated as an external threat, not an internal governance challenge.
Internationally, Pakistan has used climate vulnerability to attract sympathy and financing, especially after the catastrophic floods of 2022. While this has yielded commitments at forums such as COP27, the real test lies in converting these pledges into grounded reforms. So far, there is little evidence that international goodwill has translated into domestic preparedness. High-level summits and pledges generate headlines, but they do not build flood barriers, train emergency responders, or modernize irrigation systems.
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What Pakistan needs is not more slogans but a long-term, institutionally embedded climate strategy that spans sectors and is owned by all tiers of government. It must be locally grounded, evidence-based, and rooted in transparency. The policy must prioritize adaptation, resilience, and equity. Vulnerable communities, particularly in Balochistan and Sindh, must be at the center of the national narrative. Without this recalibration, Pakistan will remain a cautionary tale in global climate discourse.
Ultimately, climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but a national security threat. It endangers livelihoods, fuels displacement, and heightens socio-political instability. In a country already grappling with economic fragility and political unrest, climate inaction is a gamble Pakistan can no longer afford. The time to act was yesterday. The cost of delay is already being counted in lives lost, lands submerged, and futures compromised.
